Ridings and Riding Reform

[dunkalunk]

Without knowing population distributions, I'm not sure how exactly the ridings should be redrawn, but I would like to see the urban cores of Kitchener and Waterloo represented in one riding with the rough boundaries of Westmount Road, Columbia Street, and Highway 85.

I also believe that the Kitchener--Waterloo Riding is too large for the actual number of people who are living there (I'm guesing 140 000-150 000).

[bzmwillemsen]

Without knowing population distributions, I'm not sure how exactly the ridings should be redrawn, but I would like to see the urban cores of Kitchener and Waterloo represented in one riding with the rough boundaries of Westmount Road, Columbia Street, and Highway 85.

I also believe that the Kitchener--Waterloo Riding is too large for the actual number of people who are living there (I'm guesing 140 000-150 000).

In the OP the populations of the ridings are displayed at the end.
On average a riding in Canada has just over 105,000.
While the ideal size is 105,000.
See: http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/...-profiles.html

[dunkalunk]

I meant more local, by neighbourhood, I guess I meant densities.

[Haljackey]

I could see two ridings for Kitchener (east/west) and one for Waterloo. Any new riding will surely consume land in more than one of the existing ridings (ex use Highway 401 and/or Grand River as a diving line).

[UrbanWaterloo]

Fair Representation Act Moves Every Province Towards Rep-By-Pop
October 27, 2011 | Government of Canada | Link

The Harper Government today announced the introduction of the Fair Representation Act. This legislation will move every province towards representation by population in the House of Commons.

“Canadians living in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta have become significantly underrepresented as their populations have grown,” said Minister Uppal. “The Fair Representation Act delivers on our Government’s long-standing commitment and moves every single province towards the principle of representation by population.”

The Fair Representation Act updates the formula allocating House of Commons seats to provinces. Under the new legislation:

• Ontario will receive an additional 15 seats
• British Columbia will receive an additional 6 seats
• Alberta will receive an additional 6 seats

The legislation also fulfils our platform commitment to prevent Quebec from becoming under-represented relative to its population, since the purpose of the bill is to move every single province towards representation by population. To this end, Quebec will receive three new seats which will be proportionate to its share of the population.

“Canadians gave our Government a strong mandate to move towards representation by population in the House of Commons,” said the Honourable Tim Uppal, Minister of State for Democratic Reform. “With the introduction of the Fair Representation Act, we are delivering on our commitments.”

The formula updates are nationally applicable and reflect the Government’s three distinct promises to provide fairer representation by:

1. Allocating an increased number of seats now and in the future to better reflect population growth in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta; while,
2. Maintaining the number of seats for slower-growing provinces; and,
3. Maintaining the proportional representation of Quebec according to population.

The Fair Representation Act also includes amendments to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act that streamlines the boundary readjustment process to ensure that it will be completed and in effect before the end of the Government’s mandate.

For information, contact: Kate Davis, Office of the Minister of State for Democratic Reform | (613) 943-1835

Backgrounder

The Fair Representation Act will update the constitutional formula for allocating seats in the House of Commons among the provinces. The Act legislates a principled, nationally-applicable formula used to determine seat counts; it does not legislate specific provincial seat numbers.

The readjustment formula has been updated by Parliament a number of times since Confederation. Each reformulation has sought to strike a balance between providing that provinces be represented in the House of Commons in a manner that is roughly proportional to their populations while ensuring that smaller or slower-growing provinces continue to be represented in a fair manner.

The constitutional formula for allocating seats updates the representation of the provinces in the House of Commons following each decennial census.

The Status-Quo Seat Allocation Formula

The current formula for allocating seats in the House of Commons among the provinces was passed by Parliament in the Representation Act, 1985. It is based on the following steps as outlined in section 51 of the Constitution Act, 1867:

Step 1 is based generally on the principle of representation by population in determining an electoral quotient (which theoretically represents the average population per seat). The electoral quotient then divides the population of each province to determine the initial number of seats allocated to each province.

• The formula set 279 as a permanent divisor in determining the electoral quotient. 279 was the number of provincial seats in the House of Commons at the time that the formula was passed in 1985. This divisor was not allowed to readjust over time to reflect the actual number of provincial seats in the House of Commons (which is currently 305).

Step 2 provides additional seats to certain provinces when the seat count determined under Step 1 is lower than the number of seats they are entitled to under one of two minimum seat guarantees outlined in the Constitution:

• The “Senate floor”: Added in 1915 and outlined in section 51A of the Constitution Act, 1867, the senate floor guarantees that no province can have fewer seats in the House of Commons than it has Senators.
• The “grandfather clause”: Added in 1985 and outlined in section 51 of the Constitution Act, 1867, the grandfather clause guarantees that no province can be allocated a number of seats that is less than the number of seats it had in 1985.

Step 3 adds the provincial total seats and one seat for each territory to determine the total number of seats.

The combined effect of fixing the divisor at 279 and the seat guarantees to slower-growing provinces prevents faster-growing provinces from receiving a share of seats that is in line with their relative share of the population. Currently, all provinces except Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta benefit from a constitutionally-guaranteed seat floor.

While the current formula has tempered the rate of growth in the House of Commons, it has done so at the expense of provinces with faster-growing populations. Faster-growing provinces have accordingly become significantly and increasingly under‑represented in the House of Commons relative to their population and are likely to become even more under-represented in future seat reallocations with this formula.

The Updated Seat Allocation Formula

The updated allocation formula presented in the Fair Representation Act will move every province towards representation by population.

The Fair Representation Act is introduced pursuant to Parliament’s authority to amend the Constitution in relation to the House of Commons under section 44 of the Constitution Act, 1982 (this was the same constitutional authority under which the existing formula was passed in 1985). The new formula supports the “principle of the proportionate representation of the provinces” that is entrenched in section 42(1)(a) of the Constitution Act, 1982.

As set out in the diagram below, the Fair Representation Act proposes to introduce an updated seat allocation formula as follows:

• The electoral quotient for the 2011 readjustment will be set at 111, 166, reflecting the average riding population prior to the last seat readjustment in 2001, increased by the simple average of provincial population growth rates.
• The Senate floor and grandfather clause would continue to apply.
• A representation rule would apply such that if a currently overrepresented province becomes underrepresented as a result of the application of the updated formula, additional seats would be allocated to that province so that its proportional representation according to population is protected.
• For the purposes of calculating the provincial seat allocation, provincial populations are based on Statistics Canada’s annual population estimates. These estimates correct for net undercoverage in the census and provide a more accurate representation of total provincial population.

Readjustment following the 2011 Census:

As set out below, for the 2021 readjustment and each subsequent readjustment, the electoral quotient will be increased by the simple average of provincial population growth rates since the preceding readjustment.

Readjustments following the 2021 Census and onward:

Readjustment of Electoral Boundaries within Provinces

Where and how House of Commons seats are distributed within provinces is a separate and distinct process occurring after the number of seats per province is established.

Once the number of seats per province is established, the process set out in the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act is used to readjust and redistribute electoral boundaries within provinces. The readjustment of electoral boundaries is taken in accordance with census data, which provides population counts at the geographic level that are necessary to most accurately revise electoral boundaries.

Currently, within 60 days of the receipt of census return, independent non-partisan boundary commissions are established in each province. The commissions have one year to produce an initial report setting out proposed boundaries and names for ridings, during which time they carry out public consultations on their proposals.

Once the reports are finalized, the Chief Electoral Officer prepares a draft representation order, which is forwarded to the responsible Minister and proclaimed by the Governor in Council. The order becomes effective on the first dissolution of Parliament that occurs at least one year after the proclamation is issued. Under the current timelines set out in the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, approximately 30 to 38 months are necessary following the release of the census results to complete the readjustment process.

Updates to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act

The Fair Representation Act includes several updates to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act aimed at streamlining the boundary readjustment process:

• commissions would be established no later than six months following the census, or within 60 days of the census results being released, whichever comes first;
• The notice period for public hearings will be set at 30 days. Additionally, although persons interested in making submissions at public hearings would still need to provide commissions with a notice of intent, commissions would have the option of waiving this requirement if it was considered in the public interest;
• The timeline for the commissions to produce their reports would be streamlined to 10 months, with a possible two month extension; and
• The time period for the implementation of the representation order would be reduced to seven months.

Backgrounder - Seat Projections

Readjustment following the 2011 Census:

Province	Population estimate* (% share of combined provincial population)	House of Commons - Current Seats		After 2011 Readjustment		After 2011 Readjustment
				Status Quo (1985 Formula)		Fair Representation Act Formula
		Seats	% of Seats	Seats	% of Seats	Seats	% of Seats
Ontario	38.91	106	34.75	109	34.94	121	36.12
Quebec	23.22	75	24.59	75	24.04	78	23.28
British Columbia	13.31	36	11.8	37	11.86	42	12.54
Alberta	11	28	9.18	31	9.94	34	10.15
Manitoba	3.64	14	4.59	14	4.49	14	4.18
Saskatchewan	3.08	14	4.59	14	4.49	14	4.18
Nova Scotia	2.75	11	3.61	11	3.53	11	3.28
New Brunswick	2.2	10	3.28	10	3.21	10	2.99
Newfoundland and Labrador	1.49	7	2.3	7	2.24	7	2.09
Prince Edward Island	0.42	4	1.31	4	1.28	4	1.19
Provincial Total	100%	305	100%	312	100%	335	100%
Territories		3		3		3
Total		308		315		338

* Based on Statistics Canada’s Population Estimates as at July 1, 2011

[UrbanWaterloo]

Adding seats to House of Commons a political windfall for Tories
December 15, 2011 | John Ibbitson | Globe and Mail | Link

The Senate will pass the legislation enlarging the House of Commons by 30 seats either Thursday or Friday. By the weekend, it should have royal assent. This matters a lot.

Elections Canada has warned that unless the law is enacted by the New Year, it might not be able to take the new seats into account in time for the 2015 election. But now we know those new seats, created to give the growing parts of the country more equal representation, will be in place.

Each provincial elections commission will decide where the new ridings go. But your correspondent decided to get a jump on things, by identifying clumps of seats, each with populations of 110,000 or more, in the provinces that will get the new ridings. It’s from these clumps of large seats that new seats are most likely to be carved.

...

But the tri-city area of Guelph, Cambridge and Kitchener-Waterloo gets bluer with every election, and the Tories should be expected to pick up the extra seat that the technology triangle generates.

...

[UrbanWaterloo]

Commission Redraws the Federal Electoral Map of Ontario
August 27, 2012 | Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario | Link

The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario has proposed a new electoral map for consideration at public hearings this fall. Ontario will gain 15 electoral districts as a result of the increase in its population from 11,410,046 in 2001 to 12,851,821, as captured in the 2011 Census.

The proposed new electoral districts are located in the following areas: Brampton (2), Cambridge, Durham (2), Hamilton, Markham (2), Mississauga, Oakville, Ottawa, Simcoe, Toronto (2) and York. As well, despite a slight population decline, the commission has maintained 10 electoral districts in Northern Ontario as a minimum for its effective representation.

"Population shifts and increases, efforts to honour existing municipal boundaries whenever possible, and the establishment of 15 new electoral districts have required substantial adjustment to Ontario's electoral map," said the Honourable Mr. Justice George Valin, chair of the three-member commission. Mr. Douglas Colbourne and Dr. Leslie Pal are the other members of the commission responsible for readjusting the province's federal electoral boundaries.

Under the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, the commission's main aim in redrawing boundaries is to divide the province into electoral districts as close to the average population as reasonably possible. The population of a district should remain within 25% of the average once consideration is given to communities of interest or identity, and historical and geographic factors. A commission can depart from the 25% guideline to deal with extraordinary circumstances.

The commission makes final decisions about where the electoral boundaries will be located after consultation, giving the public and members of Parliament an opportunity to express their views and participate in the process.

To consult the proposal online, visit www.federal-redistribution.ca; to obtain a copy, contact the commission (see contact information below).

Public hearings

Residents of Ontario are invited to share their views on the proposed federal electoral map at the following public hearings:

• KENORA, Best Western Lakeside Inn & Conference Centre, Tuesday, October 9, 2012 at 2:00 p.m.
• THUNDER BAY, Best Western Plus Nor'Wester Hotel & Conference Centre, Wednesday, October 10, 2012 at 2:00 p.m.
• SUDBURY, City Hall, Thursday, October 11, 2012 at 2:00 p.m.
• NEW LISKEARD, Riverside Place, Monday, October 15, 2012 at 1:00 p.m.
• NORTH BAY, Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites, Tuesday, October 16, 2012 at 11:00 a.m.
• BARRIE, City Hall, Wednesday, October 17, 2012 at 2:00 p.m.
• RICHMOND HILL, Sheraton Parkway Toronto North Hotel & Suites, Thursday, October 18, 2012 at 11:00 a.m. and Friday, October 19, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• WINDSOR, Holiday Inn Downtown Windsor, Monday, October 22, 2012 at 1:00 p.m.
• LONDON, Four Points by Sheraton, Tuesday, October 23, 2012 at 1:00 p.m.
• CAMBRIDGE, City Hall, Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 11:00 a.m.
• HAMILTON, Crowne Plaza Hamilton Hotel & Conference Centre, Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:00 a.m.
• HAMILTON, Courtyard by Marriott Hamilton Hotel, Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• NIAGARA FALLS, City Hall, Monday, October 29, 2012 at 1:00 p.m.
• OAKVILLE, Holiday Inn & Suites, Tuesday, October 30, 2012 at 1:00 p.m.
• MISSISSAUGA, Central Library, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• BRAMPTON, Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott, Thursday, November 1, 2012 at 10:00 a.m. and Friday, November 2, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• OTTAWA, Hampton Inn & Conference Centre, Monday, November 5, 2012 at 10:00 a.m. and Tuesday, November 6, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• KINGSTON, Radisson Hotel Kingston Harbourfront, Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• BELLEVILLE, Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites, Thursday, November 8, 2012 at 11:00 a.m. and Friday, November 9, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• COBOURG, Best Western Plus Cobourg Inn & Convention Centre, Monday, November 12, 2012 at 1:00 p.m.
• OSHAWA, Quality Hotel & Conference Centre, Tuesday, November 13, 2012 at 11:00 a.m.
• TORONTO, North York Civic Centre, Wednesday, November 14, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
• TORONTO, Metro Hall, Thursday, November 15, 2012 at 11:30 a.m.

Everyone is invited to attend. For complete address information for public hearings, visit www.federal‑redistribution.ca under Ontario > Public Hearings. Those wishing to make a presentation at a hearing are requested to send the commission written notice no later than October 1.

Notices of presentation should include:

• the person's name, address and contact information
• the organization he/she represents (if any)
• the date of the public hearing he/she wishes to attend
• a short overview of the issue(s) he/she intends to address
• the official language of preference
• any accommodation needs the person may have

Written notice can be sent by e-mail to ontario@rfed-rcf.ca or by mail to the address below. Alternatively, the Public Hearings Notice Form can be filled out online at www.federal‑redistribution.ca under Ontario > Public Hearings.

Learn more about the redistribution of federal electoral districts at www.federal‑redistribution.ca.

Existing Local Ridings




Proposed Local Ridings




Cambridge

Population 2011: 126,748

Consisting of that part of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo comprised of the City of Cambridge.

Kitchener South - North Dumfries - Brant

Population 2011: 108,391

Consisting of:

(a) that part of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo comprised of:

(i) the Township of North Dumfries;
(ii) that part of the City of Kitchener lying southerly and westerly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the westerly limit of said city with Conestoga Parkway; thence generally northeasterly along said parkway to Highway No. 8; thence generally southeasterly along said highway to the Grand River; thence generally easterly along said river to the easterly limit of the City of Kitchener; and

(b) that part of the County of Brant lying northerly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of the westerly limit of said county with Highway No. 403; thence generally easterly along said highway to the westerly limit of the City of Brantford; thence northerly, generally easterly and generally southeasterly along the westerly, northerly and easterly limits of said city to Highway No. 403; thence easterly along said highway to the easterly limit of said county.

Kitchener Conestoga

Population 2011: 101,432

Consisting of that part of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo comprised of:

(a) the townships of Wellesley, Wilmot and Woolwich; and

(b) that part of the City of Kitchener lying easterly and northerly of a line described as follows: commencing at the intersection of Bridgeport Road and Conestoga Parkway; thence southeasterly, easterly and generally southerly along said parkway to Highway No. 8; thence generally southeasterly along said highway to the Grand River; thence generally easterly along said river to the easterly limit of said city.

Kitchener Centre

Population 2011: 92,946

Consisting of that part of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo comprised of that part of the City of Kitchener lying westerly and northerly of Conestoga Parkway.

Waterloo

Population 2011: 98,780

Consisting of that part of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo comprised of the City of Waterloo.

[dunkalunk]

I certainly like that Waterloo and Cambridge now have their own ridings, but I am curious as why there was not more of an attempt to make the urban areas of Kitchener (pop 219,000 as of 2011 census) more contiguous. You could fit most of Kitchener within 2 ridings as opposed to carving it up into 3.

I would have preferred something more along the lines of this: http://goo.gl/maps/98l6d

[KevinL]

I agree with Dunk: Kitchener needs to be more contiguous. I'm not sure what that means for the townships, but the triple-split proposed defies clear logic.

[Smore]

not only that, but S. Kitchener now extends to Brantford??

[dunkalunk]

Well I've updated my map gave it my best shot...




And zoomed in on K-W-C



I've included the Pioneer Park-Sportsworld-Toyota area in the larger Waterloo Region Riding as this area is still largely rural, add population to to the townships riding, and to improve Cambridge's representation slightly.

[KingandOttawa]

From a Waterloo Region perspective, these maps make more sense to me. The big question is whether they are justified by the population especially the rural riding around Brantford. My guess is that there aren't enough people in that area which is why we have the current proposal. But maybe that area is better affiliated with another community where it has a more natural connection.

[Don]

After receiving feedback in the public consultation sessions, the commission has now changed some of its proposals for ridings in the Waterloo Region area. It will have another public consultation session in Cambridge on Tuesday, November 20 at 9:30am in city hall to gather feedback about these new proposals.

This is from the description on the Federal Redistribution website, in the section "Additional public hearing in Cambridge"

The new proposed changes are pretty significant:

• "The Commission was persuaded that a new electoral district proposed for the Cambridge area would be a better fit in the Halton region". This is in spite of the fact that, according to the 2011 census, Waterloo Region has a population of 507,000 and Halton Region has 502,000.
• The proposed riding of Kitchener South–North Dumfries–Brant would be adjusted to include much less of the northern part of Brant County, no longer including Paris or St George. (This is a fairly minor change.)
• The new proposal says that the riding of Kitchener–Conestoga will "be eliminated." However, as of the current information available on the website, this is only partially explained: Wellesley and Wilmot townships will be joined with Perth County into a riding of Perth–Wellesley–Wilmot, and Woolwich township will be joined with all of Wellington County (except Guelph) into a riding of Wellington–Woolwich. They don't say what will happen to the eastern part of the City of Kitchener that was supposed to be part of riding of Kitchener–Conestoga as they proposed it a few months ago.

About the "missing" eastern part of Kitchener, I guess that either they totally forgot about it and will need to re-revise their updated proposal, or they intend to go back to the old (current) ridings of Kitchener–Waterloo and Kitchener Centre but they forgot to mention that in the information currently on the website. Reverting to the old definitions of Kitchener–Waterloo and Kitchener Centre would geographically work with the rest of their updated proposals, but I don't think it would be justifiable - the 2011 population of the Kitchener–Waterloo riding is 130,000!

[bzmwillemsen]

Here is a quick map I made of the new changes.
Note that Guelph will still be it's own riding.

http://goo.gl/maps/nKDsC

Edit: Looks like I forgot to link it, oops!

[KevinL]

Here is a quick map I made of the new changes.

!!!

[bzmwillemsen]

Fixed

[mpd618]

When inner suburban areas of Kitchener are lumped in with mostly rural areas, you know there is some kind of gerrymandering going on.

[markster]

Wow, Kitchener is subdivided into 4 separate ridings.

I always knew that those living on Ottawa St N had more in common with Fergus than they did with Fairway.

[Don]

bzmwillemsen, do you have a source saying that the eastern part of Kitchener will be in the Wellington--Woolwich riding?

The most recent thing I've seen from the commission simply seems to have forgotten about eastern Kitchener. It says that the township of Woolwich will be grouped with Wellington (except Guelph) in a riding, but it doesn't say what will happen to eastern Kitchener.

I'm waiting to see what will come out of the public hearing held in Cambridge this morning.

---------- Post Merged at 11:49 AM ----------

Wow, Kitchener is subdivided into 4 separate ridings.

Markster, I don't think bzmwillemsen's map is completely precise. It is very useful to get an overview of the general shapes of the proposed ridings but I think that some of the borders are not precise. For example, unless there's been a very recent update that I don't know about, the Chicopee area of Kitchener is not part of the Cambridge riding. The Cambridge riding will consist of only the city of Cambridge.

For now, I think they have Kitchener divided among three ridings - Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South--North Dumfries--Brant, and the mysterious eastern Kitchener which, under the first proposal this summer, was to be part of the redefined Kitchener--Conestoga. As far as I know, it is now unclear where eastern Kitchener would fit in their updated proposal.

I hope their formal definitions of the new proposals will be published soon - so far they only have informal, undetailed descriptions of their updated proposal.


Update: Here is a map I created showing the updated ridings for this area. This map is not perfectly drawn, especially where the borders change a lot, so don't assume that every side street along the Kitchener and Waterloo border is on the correct side.

This is based on the official detailed proposal from August 27 and the informal less-detailed updated proposals from November 9.

Edit: I had incorrectly referred to KevinL's map, but it is bzmwillemsen's map.