The Future of Waterloo Region

[RangersFan]

Region on verge of becoming ‘a really big city’

November 02, 2010
By Rose Simone, Record staff
http://news.therecord.com/Business/article/805365

KITCHENER — Imagine a dense, large city, cosmopolitan in nature, with lots of people from diverse ethnic backgrounds, plenty of highrise condos and condo townhouses in the core, and streets bustling with traffic.

That describes the cities of Kitchener and Waterloo of the future, says Joe Berridge, a partner at Urban Strategies, a Toronto-based planning and urban design firm.

“You are becoming a really big city, and a whole lot of things come with that,” Berridge said at a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. annual housing outlook seminar held Tuesday at the Holiday Inn in Kitchener.

Big city transit options, such as light rail transit, or some type of fast and efficient transit system, will no longer be a choice but a necessity, Berridge added.

“It means that you will have to intensify and turn into a more pedestrian- and transit-based community than you have had in the past. However you figure out how to pay for this, that will have to be in the works,” Berridge said.

He said people will need to see investment in the transit system in the same way they regarded investment in universities. “It is an investment in the next generation,” he said.

Berridge said although this region won’t become a giant like Toronto, it will nevertheless be a large city that is “much more compact and dense in its centre.”

Conference participants were told that in the shorter term, the housing market in Waterloo Region will return to a steadier and more stable period of growth in 2011 compared to the “roller coaster ride” of up and down swings in sales and prices that characterized the market in recent years.

“The wild ride is over,” said Erica McLerie, a senior market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

But Berridge said over the longer term, this region is growing faster than most other mid-sized cities in Ontario because the post-secondary institutions here have made it the “brain capital of Ontario.”

Waterloo Region has already passed the critical mass of a half-million people and it is expected to grow to more than 700,000 people by 2031. That gives it the second fastest population growth for a mid-sized city in Ontario, right after Barrie, he added.

The region “is assuming, very rapidly, a dominant position in Ontario,” Berridge said.

But it doesn’t have the ability to allow more sprawl on the outskirts, he added.

The Ontario Places to Grow Act is not likely to be changed too much by the present or future provincial government because people living in the smaller villages in the outskirts will also resist the urban sprawl, he added.

“There really isn’t a lot more land coming on in the next 20 years, so that does mean that you are going to be looking more and more at intensification sites and building more in the existing built-up area, reusing buildings for multiple and intense forms of dwellings,” Berridge said.

The region’s three cities will become more like “one big city,” he added.

In the past, this region has been characterized by big single-family detached dwellings, much like other small- and mid-sized cities in Ontario. But that, too, will shift somewhat. There will be growing demand for other housing options such as apartments and condos.

“That is just a fact of life for anybody who lives in a big city,” Berridge said.

Trends in the global economy are going to push up the costs of fuel and will change the way people view housing and transit options, he added. “Congestion is already becoming nightmarish and the cost of gas is going up and that will very slowly start to get reflected in the people’s housing choices.”

In many ways, Waterloo Region is experiencing the issues that come with being a growth success story, Berridge said. The “incredible investment” in higher education “is now being repaid with the incredible retention and attraction of a younger workforce.”

As a result of the investment in higher education, this region is also drawing larger numbers of highly educated immigrants with university degrees. So the very nature of the region is changing fast, Berridge said.

Compared to places in Europe and elsewhere, Ontario has actually done a good job of successfully integrating its immigrants, and “I am convinced that the successful transition into home ownership is one of the crucial parts of making that process of settlement successful,” he added.

Meanwhile, McLerie said that for the coming year, the sales and prices in the Kitchener housing market should be fairly balanced, with growth happening, but at a slower and steadier pace.

She said the housing market has been “very volatile” in recent years, because it experienced a big drop at the end of 2008 with the financial crash, then surged early this year when people were trying to buy ahead of the anticipated higher interest rates and harmonized sales tax, and then dipped again afterwards.

Although the global economy is still shaky, the local housing market is supported by population growth, a gradually improving job market and the expectation that mortgage rates will remain relatively low, she added.

“What we look forward to in 2011 is a period of more stability. After three years of volatility, the markets will return to their longer-term trend,” McLerie said.

rsimone@therecord.com

[Spokes]

Big city transit options, such as light rail transit, or some type of fast and efficient transit system, will no longer be a choice but a necessity, Berridge added.

Well look at that ;)

I have a feeling this article will result in a lot of negative letters to the editor about how we should not become the next Toronto and should resist growth, but the fact of the matter is you cant fight the growth we're seeing here in KW, and that's a good thing. It's about time we embrace being a big city.

Now we just need to focus on positive growth, getting people, lots of people, living in the cores. Building high quality buildings. And no more student only projects.

[IEFBR14]

Waterloo Region has already passed the critical mass of a half-million people and it is expected to grow to more than 700,000 people by 2031. That gives it the second fastest population growth for a mid-sized city in Ontario, right after Barrie, he added.
The big difference is that Barrie is a bedroom community that depends on the GTA for growth while Waterloo's growth, at least north of the 4-oh-1, is mostly organic and mostly of the high-value "intelligent" variety.

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

The big difference is that Barrie is a bedroom community that depends on the GTA for growth while Waterloo's growth, at least north of the 4-oh-1, is mostly organic and mostly of the high-value "intelligent" variety.

I just think the difference in critical mass has a lot to do with why Barrie more of a bedroom community. They're about as far from Toronto as Cambridge is (100km), and maybe 20km closer than Waterloo. Besides international immigration, we still get a lot of migrants from the GTA fueling our growth. Granted, some of them spend a bit of time at UW/WLU before making the switch.

A smaller place like Barrie has fewer job options without having to look outside of the city. Between Waterloo Region and Wellington County (Guelph, basically), you have almost 800,000 people and a diverse array of industries. There's not much employment in Barrie besides retail, local government, and a comparably small amount of industry.

Is Cambridge really that much more of a bedroom community than its neighbors? Last I checked, from Statscan, Kitchener alone had almost as many GTA commuters in absolute numbers (granted, the % is smaller). When you're already driving an hour each way, I can't see why you would even care about a difference of 10 minutes.

[IEFBR14]

I should have been clearer that my response was specifically directed to the newspaper article's "Big city transit options, such as light rail transit, or some type of fast and efficient transit system, will no longer be a choice but a necessity" as quoted in the post above mine.

I was simply trying to explain that our growth is qualitatively different from Barrie's and that difference adds further strength to our need for an LRT: Waterloo Region's residents are more likely than Barrie's to work within the region rather than commute to the GTA.

Barrie is more of a bedroom community not only because of its proximity to GTA but also because they have GO train service. (We can argue which is the cause and which is the effect.) Cambridge may be no farther physically but I suspect that a Cambridge resident who drives to downtown Toronto spends a lot more time doing it than a Barrie resident who takes the GO train to Union Station. Perhaps GO train service, when it finally comes to Waterloo Region, will change that by making it easier to commute to Toronto from here.

We have two universities (three if you include Guelph), one of which has a world-class reputation in high-tech. Moreover, UW has actively encouraged commercialization of their research (e.g. DJ R&T Park) and, along with the city, has managed to encourage many new high-tech startups to stay in the region. The poster child for this is, of course, RIM. As a result more of our residents can find well-paying, challenging jobs here without having to commute elsewhere. The more "captive" our residents the more they need LRTs over GO trains and 4xx highways.

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

Barrie is more of a bedroom community not only because of its proximity to GTA but also because they have GO train service. (We can argue which is the cause and which is the effect.) Cambridge may be no farther physically but I suspect that a Cambridge resident who drives to downtown Toronto spends a lot more time doing it than a Barrie resident who takes the GO train to Union Station. Perhaps GO train service, when it finally comes to Waterloo Region, will change that by making it easier to commute to Toronto from here.

The traffic is definitely worse coming from the west. To get to downtown Toronto, Cambridge takes longer for a couple of reasons. For one, the GTA sprawls further to the west than any other direction, so the metropolis pops up on you a little sooner. From Barrie, it only takes 30min to drive to Steeles Ave and the traffic isn't even backed up by then. You're almost at Yorkdale and able to park at the subway then.

By comparison, the same time spent driving from Cambridge will land you stuck in traffic somewhere between Milton and the western border of Mississauga. I think another factor would be that the 401 gets a lot of long-haul trips as a result of being "Main street, Ontario" and hosting the majority of our transport trucks. That has a huge effect on the volume the 401 takes.

I think you're right about the LRT being a higher priority for us than the GO-train though. Not that I'm opposed to either.

[DHLawrence]

We have two universities (three if you include Guelph), one of which has a world-class reputation in high-tech. Moreover, UW has actively encouraged commercialization of their research (e.g. DJ R&T Park) and, along with the city, has managed to encourage many new high-tech startups to stay in the region.

As has Guelph with biotech. And of course Conestoga gets an honourable mention ;)

[markster]

Front page spread in the Record:

Waterloo Region on the front line in province’s battle against urban sprawl (http://news.therecord.com/News/Local/article/816595)


November 20, 2010
By Terry Pender, Record staff

WATERLOO REGION — Big changes are coming to this region’s three cities as another 200,000 people are expected to move here during the next 20 years.

Similar growth is predicted for many municipalities in the greater Golden Horseshoe area.

But Waterloo Region will be the testing ground for the Ontario government’s legislated attempt to slow urban sprawl, intensify existing urban areas and enhance public transit.

Without those moves the province fears more traffic jams, lost productivity, increased air pollution and bigger costs for expanded infrastructure will seriously compromise quality of life in the urban areas of the horseshoe.

The Region of Waterloo, quite literally, wrote the legislation the provincial government passed four years ago that aims to curb urban sprawl.

At the front line of the issue is the Region of Waterloo’s new Official Plan, which has established a countryside boundary beyond which no new subdivisions can be built for the next 20 years. In coming weeks the region’s Official Plan will get final approval from the province and then be open to appeals from developers.

If the countryside line withstands appeals to the Ontario Municipal Board, the provincial tribunal that rules on land-use disputes, other municipalities in the horseshoe may establish hard lines over which no suburb can sprawl.

The countryside line surrounds Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge. Lines are also etched around Ayr, New Hamburg, St. Agatha, St. Jacobs and Elmira. The region does not want any new residential construction outside these lines.

Kevin Eby, the region’s head of community planning, expects a dozen appeals to the municipal board related to the countryside line.

Douglas Stewart, the president of the Waterloo Region Homebuilders Association, said the development industry does not like the idea of a barrier that permanently prevents the construction of new suburbs.

“Is it the correct decision to say: ‘Forever thou shalt not give consideration?’ I think that’s what it comes back to,” Stewart said.

Stewart said the homebuilders’ association will decide on an appeal only after the province has approved the region’s new Official Plan.

But Stewart made it clear the developers do not even like to hear the word “sprawl.”

“The issue of sprawl in Waterloo Region is questionable,” Wilson said. “What we have had historically is planned growth. What we have is what the policy framework provided for.”

But that policy framework has undergone major changes and is about to be enshrined in the region’s Official Plan.

For much of the past decade, Eby has been at the centre of the changes. For him it comes down to a couple of very different visions for future of the region’s urban neighbourhoods.

If the region and cities take a business-as-usual approach, planners say, the road network will have to be expanded by 500 kilometres of traffic lanes — the equivalent of 25 new Hespeler Roads — at a cost of $1.1 billion, as the region’s population grows to an estimated 729,000 by 2031, up from the current 535,000.

Or, rapid transit can be used to carry people to stations along a central transit corridor that is flanked by high-density housing and walkable neighbourhoods and linking the three cities. Rapid transit would cost $790 million for trains or $585 million for buses. Both approaches still require some new roads, though — about 267 kilometres of traffic lanes at a cost of about $550 million.

Once land costs are taken into account, the two approaches may not be all that different when looking at price tags.

But either way, changes are already happening.

Since 2006 the region has documented the construction of 2,000 residential units and $775 million in non-residential construction within 800 metres of the proposed rapid-transit stations.

Seniors are selling their large suburban homes by the thousands. Many are moving into high-density buildings in central neighbourhoods.

A survey of building permits shows a clear trend: a significant decline in single detached homes in new suburbs and increasing residential construction within existing neighbourhoods.

Eby said without the intensification of neighbourhoods along a central transit corridor, the urban spine of the three cities, many existing residential streets will be disrupted by expanded regional roads snarled with traffic twice a day.

He referred to a map that shows the steady growth of suburbs from 1960 to 2000 in this region. During that period a thick ring of suburbia was built around Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge.

“Lot levies and development charges paid for most of the infrastructure to support that suburban growth,” Eby said. “That will all have to be replaced in the next 20 to 40 years on the taxpayers’ tab.”

It is financially prudent to limit sprawl, he said.

After four decades of suburban growth, Waterloo Region now leads the province in meeting targets for reducing the construction of new suburbs on old farms.

In 1991 about five per cent of residential construction in Waterloo Region was infill, building in previously developed areas. In 2001 it was about 15 per cent. Now, between 35 per cent and 45 per cent of new housing occurs in built-up areas.

“It is like turning a really big ship. It does take time. There are thousands of decisions to be made by thousands of people,” Eby said.

The aim is to make better use of expensive investments in roads, sidewalks, sewers, water mains and transit, and to reduce the loss of prime agricultural land to housing.

The region’s growth management strategy of 2003 had three main components — a hard boundary beyond which no new subdivisions would be allowed, intensification of existing neighbourhoods and the central transit corridor.

“People thought we were off the wall, to put it politely,” Eby said. “But we felt if we were going to develop an urban area that didn’t look like Brampton or Mississauga we had to do something very different.”

The provincial government liked the region’s plan so much Eby was seconded to Queen’s Park to help write the provincial legislation that would limit urban sprawl in the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

The result was the Places to Grow Act of 2006, which requires municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe to keep 40 per cent of all new residential development within existing neighbourhoods by 2015.

Last year the region was getting very close to that target and in the first half of this year it actually exceeded that goal. In 2009, the region issued 2,769 building permits. About 37 per cent or 1,034 were for residential units in built-up areas. During the first six months of this year, 45 per cent of permits were for residential units in built-up areas.

“We have managed to virtually achieve the type of implementation that most municipalities would be lucky to achieve by 2015 or even 2020,” Eby said.

Rapid transit is one of the key parts of the growth management plan.

Accommodating another 200,000 people by constructing more car-dependent suburbs would require a 25 per cent expansion of the network of regional roads, said Graham Vincent, the region’s director of transportation planning.

“With about 40 per cent of the land in our urban areas already being used for roads and parking, we cannot continue to consume this amount of land and remain sustainable,” Vincent says.

Rapid transit is critical to the region’s growth management plans.

“Are we planning for the people who live in the existing neighbourhoods now or are we planning for the movement of automobiles?” Eby said.

He said all of the pieces of the puzzle are coming together to manage growth in this region.

One of the biggest pieces of that puzzle is a big question mark: will the region’s new Official Plan withstand appeals to the municipal board?

tpender@therecord.com

Yeah, the OMB is a tricky beast to figure out. Hopefully Places to Grow will be partly sufficient to swing more decisions in favour of the municipalities.

...
"25 new Hespeler Roads"
"25 new Hespeler Roads"
"25 new Hespeler Roads"
"25 new Hespeler Roads"
"25 new Hespeler Roads"

The Hespeler road quote is driving me insane.

[Spokes]

But Waterloo Region will be the testing ground for the Ontario government’s legislated attempt to slow urban sprawl, intensify existing urban areas and enhance public transit.

Well I hope this means Ontario will funnel some more money to help achieve these goals to show how successful Places to Grow can be.

I also love how Hespeler Rd has become a term used for everything bad. That's awesome! Now do something to change/fix it!

Either way, I can't wait for the Region's new OP to come out, and Waterloo's too for that matter.

[mpd618]

Front page spread in the Record:

Waterloo Region on the front line in province’s battle against urban sprawl (http://news.therecord.com/News/Local/article/816595)

Why was this article pulled from that link and replaced with one about the costs of light rail and roads?

[markster]

Why was this article pulled from that link and replaced with one about the costs of light rail and roads?

That is a very intriguing question. Perhaps they didn't want to give away their front page article for free? Seems particularly odd to reuse a URL.

Silver lining is that now the article I reference here (http://www.wonderfulwaterloo.com/showthread.php/219-Light-Rail-Transit?p=19446#post19446) is now readable.

[bzmwillemsen]

Does anyone have a map of the boundaries? Or will we have to wait until it gets approved?

[mpd618]

Does anyone have a map of the boundaries? Or will we have to wait until it gets approved?

You should be able to find the map somewhere on this page (http://region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/DocID/CA5BC18540AE6A2185257555006D0304?OpenDocument). I don't believe the boundaries have been changed in the approval process to date.

[bzmwillemsen]

You should be able to find the map somewhere on this page (http://region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/DocID/CA5BC18540AE6A2185257555006D0304?OpenDocument). I don't believe the boundaries have been changed in the approval process to date.

For those of you wondering:
Page 19.
http://region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/DocID/CA5BC18540AE6A2185257555006D0304/$file/MAPS.pdf

[bzmwillemsen]

So my boyfriend is a pilot and I showed him this map and he's up in arms because the urban expansion is expanding out and around the airport.

Can anyone please outline the pros of expanding out to the airport. (In respect to the airports benefits, not the cities benefits)

The cons for the airport in our opinion are:
-Increased noise complaints against the airport, which will increase restrictions on the airport (there is currently one such restriction at the Waterloo Airport)
-No one will want to live next to an airport
-No one wants night flights in their homes (if they chose to live next the airport). Most cargo flights are done in the night.
-Waterloo's airport is a training airport (canada's biggest actually) and because of this flights need to be low and circle the airport a lot, which will most likely hurt the general aviation there
-The airport won't be given a lot of choice to expand

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

There aren't any benefits in building residential around the airport. That would actually represent terrible land-use planning. The residential is only being built at quite a distance to the north, around the village of Breslau.

However, residential development around around the airport isn't the case anyways. Industrial expansion is planned for the area, which presents far fewer land-use conflicts. As long as enough room is permitted for significant expansion of the airport, it could even help by exposing more residents of this region to the fact that we actually have an airport (right now, it's really off the beaten path for most people). Another benefit I could see is, with more businesses establishing themselves east of the Grand River, it could spark demand for new hotel construction and conference centres, which could only compliment the airport, provided those hotels aren't too tall (which I doubt would be the case anyways).

By far the biggest benefit is the Fairway Road extension to the airport, making the city much more accessible to it and vice versa. We might even see GRT expand its service out there once the bridge is finished.

[bzmwillemsen]

However, residential development around around the airport isn't the case anyways. Industrial expansion is planned for the area, which presents far fewer land-use conflicts. As long as enough room is permitted for significant expansion of the airport, it could even help by exposing more residents of this region to the fact that we actually have an airport (right now, it's really off the beaten path for most people). Another benefit I could see is, with more businesses establishing themselves east of the Grand River, it could spark demand for new hotel construction and conference centres, which could only compliment the airport, provided those hotels aren't too tall (which I doubt would be the case anyways).

Do you know if they have left room for the airport to add another run way, and do you have a source?
Thanks

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

Do you know if they have left room for the airport to add another run way, and do you have a source?
Thanks

I'm not sure how much land they've left, at that level of detail.

Here's a brief overview of the eastside employment lands.

http://www.region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/0/69DFBDD7DE50E3AF852577890065B15D?OpenDocument

Regional staff contacts are listed on the bottom of the page.

Here's a more detailed pdf document (warning: big 88 page file) regarding the employment lands. As you can see on page 8 of the report, the airport is smack-dab in the middle of it all. Page 25 of the report shows the staging of the land for development. Only a brief section is mentioned about the airport on page 18, but it fails to address your concern (which is frankly my concern as well).

http://www.region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/0/69DFBDD7DE50E3AF852577890065B15D/$file/community%20structure%20plan.pdf?openelement

[bzmwillemsen]

Thanks for the info Urban_Enthusiast86.
I just sent out a quick email to one of the people in charge with some questions. I'll keep you updated on what she replyies (which I'm hoping that she does.)