Region of Waterloo Population Estimates | 543,700 (December 31, 2010)

[UrbanWaterloo]

Region of Waterloo Population Estimates
http://region.waterloo.on.ca

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/cpl/projects/graphcuttextures/data/rotation-perspective/people-out-persp.gif (http://www.cc.gatech.edu/cpl/projects/graphcuttextures/)

[UrbanWaterloo]

REGION OF WATERLOO - PLANNING, HOUSING AND COMMUNITY SERVICES
PLANNING INFORMATION BULLETIN
http://www.region.waterloo.on.ca/__85256ae80070e40f.nsf/0/A288897047333422852573700060C1D7/$file/2008%20Pop%20and%20Household%20Estimates.pdf?opene lement

DATE: March 2009
SUBJECT: 2008 YEAR-END POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES

Planning, Housing and Community Services produces year-end estimates of population and households (equivalent to occupied dwelling units) for the Region of Waterloo and its constituent municipalities. The base for these estimates is the 2006 Census of Canada. Building Permit activity as reported by the municipalities was used to update this base. Vacancy rates (extrapolated from CMHC data), demolitions, university/college student enrollment, and assumptions about the average number of persons per dwelling unit (PPU) also influence the numbers. Although based on the best information available, population and household numbers should always be regarded as estimates, not statements of fact.

Substantive adjustments were made to the Regional population estimates this year, due to data recently released from Statistics Canada which indicated that population estimates published after the 2006 census were subject to a higher than usual undercoverage rate. Undercoverage is the estimated number of people who are missed in the census. In 2006, the undercoverage rate applied to population estimates was 4.0%, exceeding the 2.3% applied in previous censuses. This required an adjustment of the estimated population for 2007.

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Adjustment of population estimates back to 2001 were also made accordingly. The following table provides revised estimates for the period from 1991 – 2007.

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[UrbanWaterloo]

YEAR-END 2009 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES
REGION OF WATERLOO PLANNING, HOUSING AND COMMUNITY SERVICES
TO: Chair Jim Wideman and Members of the Planning and Works Committee - March 9, 2010
Report: P-10-022 - http://region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/8ef02c0fded0c82a85256e590071a3ce/A43D7EF714623CAF852576DD00528F51/$file/P-10-022.pdf?openelement

SUMMARY:

Each year, an estimate of the year-end population and households is produced for the Region and each Area Municipality by Regional staff (see Figure 1). The Regional population as of year-end 2009 is estimated at 534,900 including full-time university and college students residing in the Region. The annual growth rate was 0.6%, representing an increase of 3,100 people over 2008. The number of households increased by 1,520 or 0.8%. (Note that households are occupied dwellings; the number of residential building permits issued in 2009 was higher as there is a lag between when the permit is issued and the building is occupied.)

The Region’s year-end estimates differ from the Census population counts in a number of ways. Adjustments for the Census undercount, and for students who are temporarily resident here, are made to better reflect the actual number of people using services in the community. The timeframe is also shifted from mid-May to year-end in order to better address the needs of various program delivery areas. Similarly, the Regional Persons Per Unit (PPU) estimates differ from the standard Census PPUs.

The annual increase in population is lower than in the previous years as shown in Figure 3. Tapering of population growth in recent years has been anticipated as a consequence of the cyclical nature of the new housing market. However, the low population increase estimated for 2009 may be a result of slightly higher than anticipated growth (1.71%) estimated for the previous year, 2008. Growth rates are expected to return to recent levels in 2010, based on recent building activity. The Region’s continuing growth reflects the diversity of the local economy, low interest rates, and the community’s desirability from a quality of life point of view.

The tables provided in this report are proposed to be included in a Planning Information Bulletin to be distributed to Area Municipalities and other agencies, as well as posted on the Region’s website. Population estimates are used by many Regional and Municipal departments, agencies, boards, and community groups to understand land use, plan infrastructure and service programs, calculate service costs per resident, assess housing needs and track health and social services trends.

REPORT:

Population and Household Estimates

The population estimate for year-end 2009 is 534,900. This represents an increase of 3,100 people, or 0.59% over the 2008 population estimate of 531,800. This growth is lower than the previous year-over-year growth of 9,000 people, or 1.71%. Of the Area Municipalities, Woolwich experienced the highest growth rate in 2008, at 3.1%, representing 660 additional people. In absolute growth, Waterloo grew most, with 1,200 new residents, representing an annual growth rate of 1%.

The estimated number of households in the Region is 191,170. Households are equivalent to “occupied dwellings”. Growth in households from 2008 is 1,520 units, or 0.80%. In 2009, the largest increase in the number of households occurred in Waterloo, which grew by 610 occupied units, accounting for more than one third of the Regional growth of households. In percentage increase, Woolwich had the largest growth in households, with 250 new households representing a 3.5% annual growth rate, a stable rate of growth from the previous year. Figure 1 provides the year-end 2009 population and household estimates for all Area Municipalities, with 2008 comparators.

The calculated Persons Per Unit (PPU) for year-end 2009 is 2.71, representing the estimated Regional population in regular dwellings in relation to the number of households in the Region. This relatively high PPU value includes the students who are resident in the Region, as well as the relatively large undercoverage rate applied to Regional population estimates. The average Census –equivalent PPU (usual residents in private occupied dwellings, not including students and undercoverage), was 2.62 across the Region.

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Population and Household Trends
Some key trends affecting the current population and household estimates are summarized below:

Building Activity: The rate of housing growth in the Region has declined from peak years of 2002-2005, as noted, and population growth in 2010 is expected to remain below longer term averages. Building Activity differs from the household growth estimated in this report. Building Activity measures the number of units for which a building permit was issued, while household growth measures the number of units which are estimated to be occupied (not vacant or still under construction). About two-thirds of the 2009 Building Activity occurred in the last six months; these units are not expected to be occupied until at least 2010.
Vacancy Rates: After declining over the past four years, vacancy rates in rental accommodations reported by CMHC increased sharply in 2009. While the vacancy rate in Waterloo apartments decreased from 1.1% to 1.0% in October 2009, the cities of Kitchener and Cambridge both experienced increases. Kitchener’s rate increased from 2.0% to 3.4%, above the 15-year average of 2.5%, and Cambridge’s more dramatically, from 2.2% to 5.6%, well over the 15-year average of 2.5%. This affects the estimate of the number of households in the Region, and partially offsets the increase due to new construction.
Persons Per Unit: The average number of persons per unit (PPU) has been declining for several decades according to Census data. This trend has been the result of smaller and fewer families, increased economic well-being and independence, and an aging population.
Housing cycles: The 15-year period from 1994 to 2009 approximates one complete cycle in the housing market, during which the Region’s population grew by an average of 7,840 per annum, or 1.67%. Despite the recent down turn, the most recent five-year period, from 2004 to 2009, has been characterized by relatively high levels of growth in Waterloo Region, with average annual growth in this period of 7,920 people (1.55%) and 3,228 households per year (1.78%).
University and College Students: Students at the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University, and Conestoga College represent a substantial adjustment to the total population. The estimated portion of the student body that resides here, whether temporarily or otherwise, is included in the 2009 population estimates. This inclusion of temporary and foreign students is a key difference between Census and Regional population estimates. There are now an estimated 35,370 students residing in the Region as of year-end 2009, with approximately 9,440 in student residences, on and off campus.

Methodology

An estimate of the current population and households in the Region is prepared by Planning, Housing and Community Services staff each year. The estimate is primarily based on the most recent Census of Canada (May, 2006). However, the estimate of population contained in this report differs from the population reported by the Census. To best reflect the total number of people consuming services within the Region, adjustments are made to include the census net undercoverage (those people who were missed or double counted by the Census) as well as students who are temporarily resident here. The timeframe is also shifted from mid-May to yearend. Using those adjustments, the census population of 478,121 estimated by Statistics Canada, (May 2006) equated to a Regional 2006 year-end population estimate of 516,200.

While population and households estimates are anchored to Census estimates every five years, in the subsequent post-censal years (2007-2011), the population and households are extrapolated using building permit activity. An estimated occupancy date is assigned to each building permit, and this date determines when new dwellings are added to the inventory of occupied units. The 2011 Census will provide the next anchor point when results are released in 2012/2013.

These sources are supplemented by data from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC), correlated with a visual inspection of recent aerial photography, and data such as vacancy rates published by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Recent student estimates from student enrolment data from the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University and Conestoga College are also incorporated into the estimates. This process involves careful integration of the various components of population and households from these sources, including retroactive adjustments to previous years’ population due to cancellation of building permits and other updates to historical data. Figure 2 provides revised estimates for the period from 1991 – 2008; and Figure 3 shows the growth rates for the same period.

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[Urbanomicon]

Population growth slowed in 2009, but rebound expected

March 10, 2010
By Jeff Outhit, Record staff
http://news.therecord.com/News/Local/article/682266

WATERLOO REGION — As the economy faltered, this region added only 3,100 residents last year, the smallest increase in population since 1996.

Planners had forecast the region would add 6,100 residents. On average, the community has been adding almost 8,000 residents a year over the past 15 years.

However, even as population growth slowed, local cities and townships continued to add homes and buildings at a comparatively strong pace. This suggests population growth will rebound this year as people fill the new homes.

“We are still a very attractive place to live and work, and an attractive place for national and international investment,” said Rob Horne, planning commissioner for Waterloo regional government. “We’ve got a strong future.”

A regional planning report predicts growth will return to recent levels in 2010.

The report states: “The region’s continuing growth reflects the diversity of the local economy, low interest rates, and the community’s desirability from a quality of life point of view.”

Civic planners estimate Waterloo Region reached a population of 534,900 in 2009. This includes university and college students often left out of census counts.

The last time in the past 15 years that the population grew so slowly was in 1996, when the region added 3,000 residents.

Horne is confident the region is still on pace to reach 729,000 residents by 2031. This population estimate is driving growth plans that include a proposed rapid transit system.

Building activity in the region slowed last year but did not fall as heavily as population growth.

The value of new construction dipped in 2009 but was still the third-highest value recorded in the last 10 years, a summary report reveals. Permits were issued for 2,770 residential units, just 11 per cent below the long-term average for the past 30 years.

Local housing starts dipped by 13 per cent, compared to a provincial decline of 33 per cent and collapses of 31 to 48 per cent in other southern Ontario housing markets.

Pointing to these comparatively strong numbers, planners estimate the region will grow to 542,100 residents this year, an increase of 7,200.

jouthit@therecord.com (jouthit@therecord.com)

2009 Populations
Waterloo Region: 534,900
Kitchener: 224,100
Cambridge: 127,900
Waterloo: 121,700
Woolwich: 22,240
Wilmot: 19,100
Wellesley: 10,430
North Dumfries: 9,450

Note: Municipal totals may not add due to independent rounding

[Urbanomicon]

Visible minority population to double by 2031

March 10, 2010
By Terry Pender, Record staff
http://news.therecord.com/News/Local/article/681839

WATERLOO REGION — Statistics Canada says the number of visible minorities living in this region will double by 2031.

And people who work with and study immigrants say this region has work to do when it comes to helping immigrant settle, find work and integrate.

The Statistics Canada report, which was released Tuesday, says the proportion of visible minorities will double from the 14 per cent counted in 2006 to 28 per cent in 2031.

Visible minorities are defined as “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.”

Margaret Walton-Roberts, a geographer who studies immigration, said service providers and local governments must sift the data to better determine needs of the people arriving here from other countries.

“We have a great deal of diversity within the immigrant population,” Walton-Roberts, a Wilfrid Laurier University professor who heads the International Migration Research Centre, said.

Educated and skilled immigrants coming to work in the region’s high-tech sector will have vastly different needs than refugees or asylum seekers. Upper levels of government also want more foreign students currently attending Canadian universities to remain here after they graduate.

“If that continues that is also going to be a big contributor to what happens in this region because of the universities and college that we have here,” Walton-Roberts said.

Some individuals among visible-minority groups were born here and will need little or no help, she said.
The projected increase in the visible-minority population here will be mirrored nationally, forming about 31 per cent of the Canada’s population by 2031.

Lucia Harrison, executive director of the KW Multicultural Centre, said this region must do more to help immigrant find work, settle into housing and get engaged with the community.

“I think the employment piece is huge and I think that means putting emphasis on people when they arrive to make sure that they take advantage of all the services, they learn the language,” Harrison said.

“The immigrants themselves need to do the work to make sure they have the language skills at the levels the industry expects, and the employers in the community need to be open to welcoming and hiring them,” Harrison said.

Every day at the KW Multicultural Centre there are stories about intolerance and racism and more must
be done to educate people about accepting immigrants, not just tolerating them, Harrison said.

“So I think as a community we need to work on that aspect of it as well,” Harrison said.

“We see people from all over the world and they all want the same thing, everybody has the same issues, they want their families to stay together, they want employment. So I think that education of what we all share with all the different cultures is an important thing,” Harrison said.

Some work is already being done.

The Local Immigration Partnership Council will hold a daylong community forum scheduled for March 24 called “Settling, Working, Belonging: Moving Forward.” It will be held in Luther Village, Sunshine Centre, Great Hall at 139 Father David Bauer Dr. in Waterloo.

“What are the gaps, what are the duplications of efforts, what strategies do we need in place?” Harrison.

“I think we are well placed as a community, we are already looking at it,” Harrison said.

Translation services, employment, health care and education will all need to change.

“This region has a long history of private sponsorship for refugees, a very strong kind of philanthropic-religious component now,” Walton-Roberts said. “If that continues there are different needs for that community.”

Civic participation is also an issue.

“How are we going to change the way local councils operate in order to incorporate new immigrants and newcomers into the governance of the city? How are we going to change how business is done to actually begin to be more authentic in seeing what diversity means and greater representation?” Walton-Roberts said.

tpender@therecord.com (said.tpender@therecord.com)

[starchild]

The Ontario Environmental Commissioner Gord Miller has released his annual report which covers his feedback regarding the Environmental Bill of Rights Request for Review to request a Waterloo Moraine and Galt Paris Moraine Act.

The entire report and report summery can be reviewed online here: http://www.eco.on.ca/eng/

In the attachments I've included the specific references to the Waterloo Moraine as issued in the annual report and summery report.

Here is a breakdown of the key points made:

-Population growth may be appropriate where there is adequate access to water supplies. However, the long-term supply of potable water will be adversely affected by increased development and demand for water.

-MNR Models predict that by mid-century Southern Ontario will experience at least and average 2.5 degree Celsius warming in the summer with consequent increased evapotranspiration.

-The region expects to spend $826 million in the next 10 years in treatment upgrades and expansions to water and wastewater treatment.

-The City of Guelph Water Supply Master Plan indicates the need for additional ground and/or surface water supplies by 2017-2025.

-Cambridge is examining the option of bedrock wells to meet it's water demands.

-The report (MOE review) found the Region of Waterloo has been pro-active in water resource protection and has developed and extensive monitoring program and sub-watershed development plans. Nevertheless, no specific land-use controls have been proposed.

-Although not officially part of the review the (MOE) report found that the Clean Water Act, the PPS, the Greenbelt Plan and the Ontario Water Resources Act provide adequate protection for groundwater recharge in the upper Grand River Watersheds and other watersheds.

-MOE revealed that additional studies examining water supplies were being conducted and were expected to be completed in 2010. The report also stressed the continued need to analyze data and monitor and assess future growth implications.

-MOE committed to developing guidance materials to assist with the implementation of policies protecting hydrologic functions of the moraine.

ECO COMMENTS

-If the principles of watershed-based planning are applied, and the environmental and socio-economic context of the moraines are examined to assess the cumulative effects of development, the ECO believes that the current provincial policies do not adequately protect the ecological and hydrogeological integrity of moraines.

-In our 2006-2007 Annual Report, which examined the challenges to creating sustainable communities in southern Ontario, the ECO found that "serious conflicts are inherent in the province's plans for balancing growth and ecosystem sustainability."

-The mandated use of a system-based approach - in contrast to the voluntary nature of the PPS - should ideally require the explicit prioritization of the ecological and hydrological integrity in land use planning. For example, watersheds should be a key unit within land use planning in which to frame decision-making.

-Ecologically sustainable water management requires the protection of the integrity and resilience of the affected ecosystems while meeting the human needs for water.

-It (the MOE report) did not assess whether the ecological capacity of the moraines can realistically accommodate the projected growth in the region.

-interestingly, several models cited by the report indicate that the water capacity of the moraine's recharge areas decreased as the population increased.

-The population projections for Growth Plan communities were established before the future water and wastewater infrastructure was identified, and their associated costs and environment impacts, were assessed. This clearly indicates that provincial policies, such as the Growth Plan, favor economic development over sustainable planning processes.

- Not only does the Growth Plan fail to require that population allocations be adjusted for communities with watersheds close to or already at carrying capacity, it favors large-scale infrastructure projects to overcome natural limits. Waterloo is proposing to address any future water shortages by constructing a pipe to Lake Erie to pump water in and out of the city. Not only do infrastructure projects like these override natural ecological carrying capacity, they are also extremely costly and energy intensive, and as a sewage and water systems, ("infrastructure") they are exempt from natural heritage protections in the PPS and Greenbelt Plan despite their potential for significant environmental effects.

-It is unlikely that every jurisdiction or level of government will have the same priorities. The resulting piecemeal approach to planning and protection can leave ecologically and hydrogeologically significant areas vulnerable or under protected, thereby compromising the entire landscape and the communities that rely on it.

-A comprehensive system-based plan for natural heritage protection, as well as land use planning is clearly required to address such problems.

-Our past reviews reveal that they (Provincial planning laws) were ineffective in preventing, curtailing or modifying environmentally destructive developments.

-Natural features such as large moraines should be the very basis at the outset, on which local land use planning decisions are weighed. Yet the province does not specifically identify moraines as a landform or natural heritage feature to be considered for protection.

-On numerous occasions the MOE has asserted that it's planning system is adequate to protect significant environmental features. The ECO finds this assertion unconvincing given that the government has had to create several individual laws and policies to protect specific vulnerable ecosystems including the Oak Ridges Moraine, the Protected Country Side and Lake Simcoe. The province should acknowledge, as it did for the Oak Ridges Moraine, that these laws and policies on their own are inadequate to protect complex ecological features spanning several jurisdictions.

-The province has the opportunity to make a strong commitment to ecosystems-based planning in Ontario. The PPS is under review.

-MMAH should revise the PPS to require that diversity and connectivity of natural features, as well as their long-term ecological function, and biodiversity, be maintained and restored. This would improve planning in Ontario and help to ensure significant natural features are protected.

RECOMMENDATION 14- The ECO recommends that the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing amend the Provincial Policy Statement to require that long term ecological function and biodiversity of natural heritage systems are maintained.

[Urbanomicon]

The "Welcome to Waterloo Region" sign on Townline Road had its population updated to 545,000.

[UrbanWaterloo]

YEAR END 2010 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES FOR THE REGION OF WATERLOO
To: Chair Jim Wideman and Members of the Planning and Works Committee
March 8, 2011 | Report: P-11-024 (http://www.region.waterloo.on.ca/web/region.nsf/8ef02c0fded0c82a85256e590071a3ce/A042A56368CE7E4685257849004F1CF5/$file/P-11-024.pdf?openelement)

SUMMARY

Each year, an estimate of the year-end population and households is produced for the Region and each Area Municipality by Regional staff (see Figure 1). The Regional population as of year-end 2010 is estimated at 543,700 including full-time university and college students residing in the Region. The annual growth rate was 1.69%, representing an increase of 9,000 people over 2009. The number of households increased by 3,870, or 2.03%. Households are defined as occupied dwellings; the number of residential building permits issued in 2010 was higher as there is a lag between when the permit is issued and the building is occupied.

The Region‟s year-end estimates differ from the Census population counts in a number of ways. Adjustments for the Census under-coverage, and for students who are temporarily resident here, are made to better reflect the actual number of people using services in the community. The timeframe is also shifted from mid-May to year-end in order to better address the needs of various program delivery areas. Similarly, the Regional Persons Per Unit (PPU) estimates differ from the standard Census PPUs. Therefore, the population reflected in this report is different from (but consistent with) the Regional Official Plan (ROP) population, which uses the census population figure at mid-year and the under-coverage adjustment, but does not include temporary students or year-end values.

After a lower rate of population growth in 2009, the 2010 growth rate returned to a more usual level, as shown in Figure 3. Growth rates are expected to remain healthy in 2011, based on recent building activity. The Region‟s continuing growth reflects the diversity of the local economy, low interest rates, and the community‟s desirability from a quality of life point of view. The population estimates are on track with forecasted growth contained in the Province of Ontario‟s Places to Grow, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

The tables provided in this report are proposed to be included in a Planning Information Bulletin to be distributed to Area Municipalities and other agencies, as well as posted on the Region‟s website. Population estimates are used by many Regional and Municipal departments, agencies, boards, and community groups to understand land use, plan infrastructure and service programs, calculate service costs per resident, assess housing needs and track health and social services trends.

REPORT

Population and Household Estimates

Figure 1 provides the year-end 2010 population and household estimates for all Area Municipalities, with 2009 comparators. The population estimate for year-end 2010 is 543,700. This represents an increase of 9,000 people or 1.69% over the 2009 population estimate of 534,700. Of the Area Municipalities, Woolwich continues to experience the highest growth rate in 2009, at 3.5%, representing 760 additional people. In absolute growth, Kitchener grew the most, with 4,000 new residents, representing an annual growth rate of 1.8%.

The estimated number of households in the Region is 194,890. Households are equivalent to “occupied dwellings”. Growth in households from 2009 is 3,870 units (2.03%), more than double the growth in the previous year. In 2010, the largest increase in the number of households occurred in Kitchener, which grew by 1,850 occupied units, accounting for almost one half of the Regional growth of households. In percentage increase, Woolwich had the largest growth in households, with 300 new households representing a 4.1% annual growth rate.

The calculated Persons Per Unit (PPU) for year-end 2010 is 2.71, representing the estimated Regional population in regular dwellings in relation to the number of households in the Region. This PPU value includes the students who are resident in the Region, as well as the undercoverage rate applied to Regional population estimates. The average Census–equivalent PPU (usual residents in private occupied dwellings, not including students and undercoverage), was 2.62 across the Region.


http://www.wonderfulwaterloo.com/wdrive/Urban%20Issues/P-11-024%20-%20Figure%201.jpg

Population and Household Trends

Some key trends affecting the current population and household estimates are summarized below:

Building Activity: Building Activity differs from the household growth estimated in this report. Building Activity measures the number of units for which a building permit was issued, while household growth measures the number of units which are estimated to be occupied (not vacant or still under construction). About 60% of the 2010 Building Activity occurred in the last six months of the year; many of these units are not expected to be occupied until at least 2012.
Vacancy Rates: The vacancy rates in rental accommodations reported by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) fell from its unusually high level of 3.3% in 2009 to 2.6% in 2010, closer to the 15-year average of 2.5%. This decrease in the level of vacant apartments contributed to the population estimate increase in 2010.
Persons Per Unit: The average number of persons per unit (PPU) has been declining for several decades according to Census data. This trend has been the result of smaller and fewer families, increased economic well-being and independence, and an aging population.
Housing cycles: The 15-year period from 1995 to 2010 approximates one complete cycle in the housing market, during which the Region‟s population grew by an average of 8,213 per annum, or 1.67%. Despite the lower increase in 2009, the most recent five-year period from 2006 to 2010, has been characterized by relatively high levels of growth in Waterloo Region, with average annual growth in this period of 7,580 people (1.55%) and 3,232 households per year (1.77%).
University and College Students: Students at the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University, and Conestoga College represent a substantial adjustment to the total population. The estimated portion of the student body that resides here, whether temporarily or otherwise, is included in the 2010 population estimates. This inclusion of temporary and foreign students is a key difference between Census and Regional population estimates. There are now an estimated 39,030 students residing in the Region as of year-end 2010, with approximately 7,930 in student residences. The definition of „student residences‟ has been aligned more closely with the universities and the Census. In 2010, this report treats some private and co-op facilities, which continue to be entirely student occupied, as regular dwellings. More research in this area may result in some further refinement of definitions and/or adjustments to the estimates of the number of students housed.
Places to Grow Forecast: The Province of Ontario published a 2031 forecast of 729,000 people in the Region of Waterloo in the Places to Grow (P2G) Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006). This is the population figure that the Region of Waterloo‟s Regional Official Plan (ROP) must plan to achieve. P2G also contains an interim forecast of 526,000 people in 2011. As shown in Figure 2, the Region‟s preliminary estimate for 2011 is 551,300 residents, including students (see “University and College Students” above). Using the P2G population definition (which excludes students), this would be 531,300, which nominally exceeds the P2G interim forecast.

Methodology
An estimate of the current population and households in the Region is prepared by Planning, Housing and Community Services staff each year. The estimate is primarily based on the most recent Census of Canada (May, 2006). However, the estimate of population contained in this report differs from the population reported by the Census. To best reflect the total number of people consuming services within the Region, adjustments are made to include the census net undercoverage (those people who were missed or double counted by the Census) as well as students who are temporarily resident here. The timeframe is also shifted from mid-May to year-end. Using those adjustments, the census population of 478,121 estimated by Statistics Canada, (May 2006) equated to a Regional 2006 year-end population estimate of 515,500.

While population and households estimates are anchored to Census estimates every five years, in the subsequent post-censal years (2007-2011), the population and households are extrapolated using building permit activity. An estimated occupancy date is assigned to each building permit, and this date determines when new dwellings are added to the inventory of occupied units. The 2011 Census will provide the next anchor point when results are released in 2012/2013.

These sources are supplemented by data from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC), correlated with a visual inspection of recent aerial photography, and data such as vacancy rates published by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Recent student estimates from student enrolment data from the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University and Conestoga College are also incorporated into the estimates. This process involves careful integration of the various components of population and households from these sources, including retroactive adjustments to previous years‟ population due to cancellation of building permits and other updates to historical data. Figure 2 provides revised estimates for the period from 1992 – 2009, and Figure 3 shows the growth rates for the same period.


Figure 2: Long-term Trends in Population and Households

Year-end | Population| Change (%)| Households| Change (%)
1992| 406,000| -| 140,260| 2.28
1993| 411,300|1.30| 143,090| 2.02
1994| 417,400| 1.50| 146,280| 2.23
1995| 420,500| 0.73| 148,080| 1.23
1996| 423,400| 0.70| 149,650| 1.06
1997| 429,400| 1.42| 152,010 | 1.58
1998| 436,700| 1.69| 154,960| 1.94
1999| 445,100| 1.92| 158,270| 2.14
2000| 453,600| 1.91| 161,590| 2.10
2001| 462,200| 1.90| 164,610| 1.87
2002| 472,000| 2.12| 167,530| 1.77
2003| 482,200| 2.17| 170,790| 1.95
2004| 495,100| 2.67| 175,010| 2.47
2005| 505,800| 2.16| 178,730| 2.13
2006| 515,500| 1.92| 182,450| 2.08
2007| 522,700| 1.39| 185,760| 1.81
2008| 531,400| 1.67| 189,480| 2.00
2009| 534,700| 0.62| 191,020| 0.81
2010| 543,700| 1.69| 194,890| 2.03
2011*| 551,300| 1.39| 198,130| 1.66
5-yr average:| 7,580| 1.55| 3,232| 1.77
15-yr average:| 8,213| 1.67| 3,121| 1.80
* Projected.

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