CFL - Future Expansion?... to Waterloo Region?

[UrbanWaterloo]

CFL - Future Expansion?... to Waterloo Region?
www.cfl.ca

704

Current Franchises (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Football_League)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/CFL_Team_Locations.png/450px-CFL_Team_Locations.png

[UrbanWaterloo]

There's been some discussion on other forums regarding CFL expansion. I've also noticed expansion talk on the official CFL website. What are your thoughts on this? In particular, what are your thoughts on a CFL team in Waterloo Region?

For reference, there are currently 8 teams in the CFL:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/CFL_Team_Locations.png/450px-CFL_Team_Locations.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Football_League

2007 Attendance figures at the end of the regular season:

1. Edmonton Eskimos 36,843
2. BC Lions 32,456
3. Calgary Stampeders 31,246
4. Toronto Argonauts 30,931
5. Saskatchewan Roughriders 28,054
6. Winnipeg Bluebombers 27,695
7. Hamilton TigerCats 23,201
8. Montreal Alouettes 22,903

Here were isaidso's (SSC) initial thoughts:


1. Expand by 2 teams at once: Quebec City and Ottawa
2. Move Winnipeg back to the West
3. This would give the league 5 in the east, 5 in the west
4. Around 2010 add Victoria and Halifax
5. Around 2015 add Kelowna and Waterloo Region
6. Around 2017 add Mississauga and Windsor

The last round would create an imbalance in the league, but there aren't cma's large enough in the West to maintain balance. Abbotsford-Mission and Saskatoon would be the largest, but pose certain limitations.

My thoughts:

At 8 teams, the CFL is somewhat of a joke. 8 teams is something you would expect to find in a division of a national league - not in the entire league.

A nice feature of having 7 teams in each division, is that you could then have the playoffs 4vs4, 2vs2, 1vs1 without having it seem as though a team is guaranteed to be in the playoffs.

I understand and agree that these markets should be the first priorities for expansion: Ottawa, Quebec City, Victoria and Halifax. However, after those 4 cities, Waterloo Region should be one of the next expansion markets. I'd like to see a team here by 2020. By that time, it's forecasted Waterloo Region will have over 600,000 people and there's also nearby Guelph (also growing).

As for a location: There's been some very initial talks of the OHL Kitchener Rangers looking to build a new Arena and it's my hope they will choose a Downtown/Midtown Site. This would open up space at the Kitchener Memorial Auditorium Park for redevelopment, which would be my preferred site for a CFL team. The benefits are: 1) It would be approx. 500m from a proposed LRT station, and 2) It's right beside the Conestoga Parkway (which will be directly connected to the new Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph).

[Spokes]

While I like the thoughts of isaidso (SSC), his timeline is way off. And it starts in Ottawa. They're not getting a team until they have a stadium. Their staduim (Frank Clair Stadium) is awaiting a decision on the whole Landsdowne Park issue. So that can't happen right now, it'll be another two years before they have a team. That throws his timeline way off.

Does Quebec City have a football worthy stadium? That being said, where would a team play here? Maybe University Stadium. But for how long? It's only got a capacity of 6000. You could play there for the first few seasons WHILE a new stadium was being built, but I can't imagine the CFL being ok with a stadium with a 6,000 person capacity.

I'm all for the idea, I'm not sure we'd be able to draw the numbers, but regardless of that, we'd need a stadium first.

And a quick note, Moncton wants a franchise as well. They're hosting an exhibition game there this year. (Much like Quebec City in 2003 and Halifax in 2005)

If only we could do that.

[Spokes]

Great article about CFL expansion from the Bleacher Report - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/315228-2011-the-key-year-for-the-cfl


CFL Faces Key Year in 2011
by Steve Thompson


2010 should have been a more significant year for the CFL because it was supposed to mark the return of a franchise in Ottawa.

Instead the CFL was shown its uncomplimentary status in the capital of Canada by the repeated delays and opposition to the development and rebuilding of Frank Clair Stadium in Lansdowne Park. Over thirty years of non-competitive football will have that kind of effect.

So if all goes well, the CFL will have to wait until 2012 before they become a nine team league again. For 2010, the league will have to settle for a consolation prize of a regular season game between Toronto and an opponent in Moncton, New Brunswick (see photo above).

But the key year for the CFL is not 2010 or 2012 but the in-between year of 2011 when much of its future development will be determined.

Why? Because 2011 is the year of the next Canadian census and the growth of the population in many non-CFL Canadian cities will determine how the CFL grows and develops in the coming decade.

The CFL has long talked about Canadian expansion, at least to ten teams. It is a question frequently asked current Commissioner Mark Cohon on the blog at the CFL's official website.

The demise of the Ottawa Renegades and the failure to expand cost ex-Commissioner Tom Wright his job.

So for this article, let's look at some of the non-CFL cities and see how they have to grow in order to host a viable CFL franchise.

With one exception, all the populations will be small compared to the existing eight franchises, but remember that these teams once played in much smaller cities back in the 1950s and 1960s.

In fact the shock is that the CFL had a much healthier Ottawa franchise back then when it was only half the size of its current 1.2 million.

So what would the CFL like to see revealed in the 2011 census?


Quebec City

In the CFL's case, not much. Quebec is the one Canadian city (outside of Ottawa) with a population that is big enough to host a CFL team immediately.

In the last census in 2001, Quebec passed Winnipeg to become Canada's seventh largest city with a population of over 700,000.

Quebec has a reputation of being an introverted city, especially in regards to English Canada, but that seems to be changing. The city elected non-BQ MPs for the first time in a long while and during 2008, made active attempts to lure tourists from outside Quebec when it celebrated its 400th anniversary.

More importantly, on the sports front, the city is taking active steps to build a facility to regain the NHL team it lost in the 1990s. On the football scene, powerhouse Laval University gets great support and the city hosted a sold-out Vanier Cup in 2009.

The problem with Quebec is not on the population level but on the investor level. Two names have been occasionally mentioned who claim to have an interest in bringing a CFL team to Quebec, but the league considers them financially unreliable and does not take them seriously.

Commissioner Cohon, start looking for suitable investors like Quebecor which is fronting the NHL bid, who believe in the CFL, and get this city into the CFL as quickly as possible.

They'll be a great draw in Montreal and will have a market not only in eastern Quebec, but possibly in the Maritimes too. This is the best Canadian city for CFL expansion.


London

London's growth rate slowed down during the first five years of the new century, but they still managed to keep ahead of Kitchener as Canada's tenth largest city with a population of over 450,000.

When you consider that cities like Hamilton, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa were fielding teams with that kind of population or less back in the 1950s, a franchise in London seems perfectly feasible with a proper stadium.

Like Quebec, London has a successful university team at Western.

It is probably too much to hope for, but if London cracked the 500,000 barrier, or even got close to it, a stable investor and an adequate stadium would make London a permanent member of the CFL.


Kitchener

Kitchener is right behind London with a population over 450,000, and unlike London, posted the seventh highest growth rate in Canada during the first five years of the new century.

They also have a successful university team in Laurier and a second one in Waterloo.

They would have a natural rival if London joined and another one in Hamilton.

If they came near or cracked the 500,000 mark, they would have same status as London.


Victoria

Whoever is the CFL Commissioner will be cheering for this city of 330,000 to grow. The CFL has more than enough potential expansion cities in the east, but if the league wants to retain the popular east-west format, this is the best western city for expansion.

It would have a natural rivalry with Vancouver and would strengthen the CFL in the province of British Columbia.

Unfortunately, Victoria has only shown moderate growth and it would have an increase in the growth rate if it even got past 350,000. Probably the CFL won't consider it until it gets past 400,000.

Also unfortunate is that Victoria doesn't seem to have much of a sports tradition. It doesn't even ice a junior hockey team.

But if the CFL wants to keep a balanced east-west league, this is the only western city with a remote chance of joining.


Oshawa

This city has an identical population to Victoria, but a vastly superior growth rate. In fact, Oshawa has Canada's eighth fastest growth rate from 1980-2005.

Just as important is Oshawa's surrounding region. They could probably draw fans from as far west as eastern Scarborough, to Peterborough in the north, and to Kingston in the east, a potential market area of over one million.

Durham county is probably the leading growth area of Toronto's regional overflow. It's probably unlikely that Oshawa will get past the 400,000 mark which would make it more noticeable, but with its high growth rate and it's surrounding region's growth rate, a CFL team could be feasible.

More likely, it will be under-estimated by both the CFL and potential investors during the next decade and won't be considered for a franchise until the 2020s.


Halifax

This is the leading Maritime city with a population of over 370,000, the city ex-Commissioner Tom Wright had in mind when he pledged to expand the CFL to 10 cities.

The CFL dreams of being a coast to coast league.

Unfortunately, Halifax, like all Maritime and Saskatchewan cities is plagued with the slowest population growth in Canada. It was a miserable 19th in population growth during the first five years of the new century.

Cities like Kitchener and London that once were nowhere near Halifax have surpassed it.

Even breaking the 400,000 mark in 2011 will be achievement. It would certainly make a team there more feasible, closer to the reality of Wright's romanticized dream.

Equally unfortunate is that Halifax seems content to let Moncton, a much smaller city be the CFL's torch-bearer in the Maritimes.

It's made no attempt at building a CFL stadium. Unlike Moncton which has only managed to land a single regular season game because of its much smaller population, if Halifax had built a stadium to accommodate a CFL team, the league would have seriously considered expansion to any investor who had the interest and clout to make the CFL's coast to coast dream a reality.

What the CFL wants to see in 2011, is the dynamic growth Oshawa displays and a population past the 400,000 mark which would attract would-be investors. Sadly, that probably won't happen.


Windsor

Ex-Commissioner Tom Wright came calling when Detroit hosted the Super Bowl. The mayor of Windsor was even on some of the Detroit committees during the Super Bowl festivities.

Windsor certainly is a contender for a CFL team. But it has the smallest population of all the best-contending cities with over 320,000 and a growth rate better than Halifax's, but less than Victoria's.

What makes Windsor both an attractive CFL destination and a potential trap door, is that too much of its expectations are based on the fate of the NFL's Detroit Lions.

So long as Detroit remains mismanaged and uncompetitive, the idea is that fans will be lured across the river to see a competitive football team even if it's in a league with less status than the NFL.

But what if Detroit becomes competitive and the Windsor team gets stuck at the bottom of the CFL? The league would be better to wait until Windsor can stand on its own two feet without any assistance from Detroit.

Windsor would have to show a growth rate higher than Ottawa's to reach the 400,000 mark, something extremely unlikely. It will be fortunate if it even nears 350,000.

Another deterrent is the Detroit-Windsor economy. Not even the former Stanley Cup Champion Red Wings sell out consistently now.

Windsor will probably get a team when it emerges a lot more from under Detroit's shadow.

Those are the most promising cities for CFL expansion. But there are two long shots that have to be considered.


St. Catharines

St. Catharines will be the next Canadian city to crack the 400,000 barrier. It has a bad growth rate, identical to Halifax, but it has surpassed the Maritime city with 390,000.

It's unlikely the CFL will consider this quiet town next door to the Niagara Peninsula, but if events occurred...

These potential events lie in Los Angeles where the potential builders of a new stadium have publicly stated they are interested in stealing an existing NFL team instead of trying for an expansion one. On their list is the Buffalo Bills who are already discontented with their home market and are playing games in Toronto.

Let's suppose LA steals the Bills away from their hapless fans in upstate New York and the NFL has no intention of returning to unglamorous Buffalo in the near future.

Suddenly you have a Windsor-Detroit situation...without the competing Lions.

Then you could try the experiment of placing a team near the American border and trying to lure fans across the river.

It would be better if St. Catharines showed the dynamic growth of Oshawa, Kitchener, and London, but if the Bills were removed, an investor might be tempted to trying a franchise if a suitable stadium was built.


Moncton

Small Moncton with a population of 126,000 and the worst growth rate of all the cities listed has to be considered because they are the only city that is doing the one thing that will lure both the CFL and investors; building a stadium even if it is only half CFL size.

Moncton is doubling their stadium for next year's CFL game by adding 10,000 temporary seats, making it the size of the current Montreal stadium.

For a CFL franchise, they need to be made permanent with a commitment to reaching the CFL's proclaimed minimum standard of 25,000 in the near future.

Ideally, the CFL would like to see Moncton's population reach 200,000 and that of New Brunswick to pass one million making a permanent Moncton team a successful provincial New Brunswick regional team like Saskatchewan.

But even a population jump to 150,000 would be astounding. Much will also depend on the kind of enthusiasm Moncton shows for next year's regular season game.

Moncton is unlikely to get a permanent team in the near future. It will probably be a fine franchise in the very long term.

But with enough population growth and an enthusiastic sold-out game next year, stranger things have happened.


In any event, the key year for the CFL is not the first year of the new decade, but one after when its future Canadian growth will be determined.

So first off, I'm sure he means Waterloo Region when he references Kitchener.

Glad to see we're at the top of the list. And I see us passing London on that list.

He's right though, Quebec City has to be at the top. While he's got Halifax and Moncton further down on the list, I imagine them actually being higher, especially in the eyes of the CFL. (Maybe not THAT much higher for Muncton though, given their low population and growth numbers.) They have a plan to spread CFL football from coast to coast. Either one of these cities solves that. Not to mention Halifax has already had an exhibition game, and Moncton is about to.

[UrbanWaterloo]

If I Could Interview CFL Commissioner Mark Cohon... by Steve Thompson
Steve Thompson, Featured Columnist
Written on February 01, 2010
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/337148-if-i-could-interview-cfl-commissioner-mark-cohon

As anybody who regularly reads CFL articles on Bleacher Report knows, I am the blog’s only feature writer for the league.

In that capacity, it’s my duty to think of one article a week during the off-season and two when the CFL starts playing.

One thing I would love to do for CFL articles is to conduct interviews with people involved with the league and, of course, at the top of the list is CFL Commissioner Mark Cohon.

The Commissioner often answers questions at the CFL’s website, where everyone who asks gets one question answered.

That’s not good enough for me. I want a full-scale interview.

I’m an old hand at it. I used to conduct phone interviews for the Ontario Provincial Government about corporation sports activities for employee fitness.

I’ve also been on the other end of the spectrum when I was a guest commentator/co-host on a sports phone-in show on television in Ajax, Ontario, where I would have to answer a caller’s question and debate with him in front of the whole town.

So this week’s Bleacher Report article is about my (imaginary) interview with CFL Commissioner Mark Cohon listing the possible questions I’d ask him.

Of course the conversation could go in different directions depending on his answers, but these are the kind of things I’d like to find out:

...

Mark, this brings up a topic that is very popular at both the CFL’s website and on Bleacher Report, CFL expansion. A lot of fans would like the CFL to move beyond its 8-9 team format.

Mark, the three largest Canadian cities without a CFL team are Quebec with over 700,000 and London and Kitchener with populations nearing half a million. All three also have good football programs at the university level. If they got CFL size stadiums and good ownership, I think they are big enough to join the CFL as permanent members right now.

...

Is the choice of Moncton for this game a mistake? Should the CFL have chosen bigger cities like the three I mentioned before, markets that have more chances of survival, in cities that have populations that would make them more suited for joining the CFL immediately?

...

Should new investors for CFL expansion be expected to pay for the building of new stadiums or the refurbishing and expansion of old ones?

The CFL’s expansion stadium policy is stated at 25,000 minimum. How flexible is the CFL’s position on this?

We’ve seen rich investors like Jim Balsillie and now Quebecor make active pitches for an NHL franchise. The Thomson family is rumored to be involved with a Winnipeg bid. These seem to be the type of investor the CFL is looking for. Does the CFL make any attempts to network with these type of investors?

Depending on his answer, I might then ask:

Should the CFL take more active steps to network with this type of investor?




Or

Are there any names you can give out that the CFL has had talks with regarding CFL expansion and with what city?

Are you satisfied with the CFL’s size right now?

How many teams should the CFL have right now?

How many teams should the CFL have by 2020?

Which new Canadian cities would you like to see the CFL have franchises in right now and a decade from now?

It is said that the Ottawa situation and the failure to expand cost your predecessor, Tom Wright, his job. Are there any dangers for you in these matters?

The 2011 census will be important for the CFL for its future development. Will the results of the census influence the CFL on what direction they should take in regards to exhibition games, expansion, and other policies?

[UrbanWaterloo]

With all the commotion going on in Hamilton, I wonder what it will do to our chances of getting a CFL team.

The City wants to put a stadium near their West Harbour, the Tiger-Cats want a stadium up on the East Mountain. Hamilton has already lost the 2015 Pan-Am track-and-field events (http://www.toronto2015.org/lang/en/news/post-board-of-directors-meeting-regular-update-by-chair.html) as a result of this mess. Are they going to lose their football team next? CFL Commissioner Mark Cohon has hinted they might. Would they just fold or relocate? If it's the latter, to where? Waterloo Region?

[Urbanomicon]

With all the commotion going on in Hamilton, I wonder what it will do to our chances of getting a CFL team.

The City wants to put a stadium near their West Harbour, the Tiger-Cats want a stadium up on the East Mountain. Hamilton has already lost the 2015 Pan-Am track-and-field events (http://www.toronto2015.org/lang/en/news/post-board-of-directors-meeting-regular-update-by-chair.html) as a result of this mess. Are they going to lose their football team next? CFL Commissioner Mark Cohon has hinted they might. Would they just fold or relocate? If it's the latter, to where? Waterloo Region?

A CFL team would be great in the region. Where would they play? Is Centennial Stadium large enough for a CFL team or would a new stadium have to be built? If we require a new stadium, I think that would squash any hope of the region getting it.

Duke should have some interesting insights on this situation.

[Spokes]

Wow, the thought of the Ti Cats not being in Hamilton is rather shocking. I thought they were loved and therefore had a great deal of support. No?

If they were to move it would depend where the owners wanted them, but Quebec City and Waterloo Region would make sense. So too would something out east since the commish seems to have a hard on for maritime expansion. It has to be something east coast otherwise you'll disrupt things. Although Ottawa is coming back within a few years which would give a 9th team

[DHLawrence]

SSP has the debate in great detail, but the owner and the CFL commissioner is warning city council (who are pushing a downtown site) that if they do not contribute to a site on the East Mountain (big box land), then it will be 'the end of CFL in Hamilton.' The owner is telling Hamilton how to spend its money--and to spend it on a sprawl-ville stadium where he'll receive 100% of the parking revenue. It's going to be ugly, particularly since the track and field events promised to Hamilton have been swapped for soccer.

[UrbanWaterloo]

This was the letter from Mark Cohon:


July 30, 2010
Mayor Eisenberger, City of Hamilton
Members of Council
Pan Am Host Corporation
Michael Fenn, Facilitator

Dear Mayor, Members of Council, Members of Pan Am Host Corporation and Mr. Fenn:

First of all, on behalf of the Canadian Football League's Board of Governors, our teams and most importantly our fans, thank you for your attention to this important issue. While your roles vary, you all share a commitment to the importance of public service, and that commitment deserves to be acknowledged and appreciated, for it often represents a great deal of hard work and personal sacrifice.

I am writing in support of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and their endorsement of the East Mountain location for a new Pan Am Games stadium in the city of Hamilton. Rather than repeat the points Bob Young and his team have made throughout the process, I will simply state here that the success, and even survival, of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats is at stake, and we do not want to envision for even a moment a CFL without one of our oldest and proudest teams.

Mr. Young has invested heavily in the future of the franchise, and his goal in this matter is simple, straight forward, and heartfelt: he wants the Tiger-Cats to succeed, for the long term and in the best interests of the city of Hamilton and the people who proudly call it home, and he is steadfast in his belief the team can only achieve financial viability playing in a proper venue in a viable location, and the East Mountain site is one such location, while the West Harbour is not.

For my part as Commissioner of our league, I want to focus here on a significant opportunity for the city of Hamilton beyond the Pan Am Games: the prospect of hosting the national jewel that is the Grey Cup multiple times in the years ahead, if and when a suitable stadium in the right location is available.

The Grey Cup game, of course, is our national championship. But the event, and the week-long festival that surrounds it, has become much more. It's a true Canadian icon, a symbol of Canadians' desire and ability to come together, no matter what part of the country, or what part of the world, we hail from. And because of that, it is now a significant cultural event, a major tourism opportunity, a chance to project a positive image to millions of people, and a powerful source of economic stimulus for the host city.

It brings tens of thousands of visitors to town. It fills bars and restaurants and hotels and streets and, frankly, coffers. It shines a positive light on its host. If it were a convention, cities would fight over it tooth and nail. But it's much more.

Consider the following:

An economic impact study of the 2007 Grey Cup in Toronto, done for the city of Toronto by the Canadian Sport Tourism Alliance, concluded that event generated more than $80.1 million in total economic activity throughout the province, with $52.9 million occurring in Toronto .

That number does not take into account the value of national exposure for the host city, as hundreds of national media attend the Grey Cup, and millions of Canadians watch it on television. (The 2009 game was the most watched television event in Canada last year, with 14 million viewers, or 43 per cent of the Canadian population)

It is estimated that, as the Grey Cup continues to grow through 2012, our one hundredth Grey Cup, its economic value will reach the $100 million mark.

The Canadian Football League very much wants to bring the Grey Cup back to Hamilton. The Grey Cup belongs in Hamilton, the source of so much lore, history and pride for all of us who love our game and what it has come to mean to our country. But for too long, we have not been able to bring the Grey Cup to Hamilton because of the lack of a suitable stadium to host what has become a huge event. And it would be virtually impossible to host a Grey Cup to the current CFL standard at the proposed West Harbour stadium location.

Our Board now insists on at least 45,000 seats at the Grey Cup venue, and the West Harbour location, bordered by water and an embankment, is extremely problematic when it comes to accommodating approximately 20.000 good, albeit temporary, seats. Ease of access is vitally important to us, not just for thousands of fans, and the influx of media, staff and volunteers, but also for security and safety reasons, and we are concerned that access to the West Harbour location is terribly limited. The event extends well beyond the game field itself and the area surrounding the stadium needs to accommodate concession, concerts, sponsor activations and several trailers, television trucks and other large vehicles, but the West Harbour location would be extremely restrictive in this regard.

To put it in a nutshell: If the Tiger-Cats' experts know the West Harbour would not work for a regular season game accommodating 25,000 fans and the normal amount of supporting activities for four or five hours, how could it possibly accommodate 45.000 or 50,000 fans and an extraordinary amount of supporting activities and infrastructure over a time period spanning an entire day and evening?

On the other hand, early indications are the East Mountain location, with its proximity to major roadways, and relatively open surroundings, appears to be a prime location for Grey Cups.

There is a related point that I want to stress: I understand that there are those who assume that, if the Tiger-Cats under Bob Young's ownership were to leave the city of Hamilton for any reason, our league would be certain to grant the city another franchise by way of expansion. I do not support that type of thinking nor would our Board. In fact, I am deeply concerned that, should this issue force the Tiger-Cats to leave the city, it will be the end of the CFL in Hamilton. So our emphasis is on a resolution of this issue that works for the Tiger-Cats under Bob Young. He has been a tremendous owner and valued league governor. He has invested heavily in the team and, I might add, the city. And our Board of Governors' support for Mr. Young is unequivocal.

It has been suggested that the decision facing Council is about more than football; that this is also about the city's economic development. I couldn't agree more. But you don't have to choose one or the other. By choosing what is best for the future of the Tiger-Cats, you will also be seizing a major economic opportunity in the form of multiple Grey Cups, while reserving the West Harbour for other opportunities, be they commercial or residential ones that are more suited to that particular site. By choosing the East Mountain site, you will acknowledge that great cities are defined not only by infrastructure that works, but by symbols that matter, including sports teams with tradition and stature, and big events that stand out, like our beloved Grey Cup.

We in the CFL believe in building stronger communities. That's why our teams and players make thousands of public appearances in support of social, charitable and civic causes. That's why our owners, including Bob Young and another Hamilton native, David Braley, have well earned reputations as city builders. We very much want to see Hamilton grow and prosper. And we want the Grey Cup to help fuel that success, to celebrate that success, and to communicate that success to other Canadians.

All we need is a proper stadium in the right location, a viable location, and a rare opportunity to build such a venue is before you: we urge you to grasp it.

Sincerely,
Mark Cohon
Commissioner

[KayDubya]

A CFL team would be great in the region. Where would they play? Is Centennial Stadium large enough for a CFL team or would a new stadium have to be built? If we require a new stadium, I think that would squash any hope of the region getting it.

Duke should have some interesting insights on this situation.I believe the CFL requires 25000 seats for new or relocated teams.
Centennial is way to small for the CFL and I really can't see any one wanting to build a stadium. At this point I would say this is nothing more than posturing by the league and the team. The Ti-Cats have been in Hamilton to long. I just can't see them packing up and leaving town.

[Spokes]

I believe the CFL requires 25000 seats for new or relocated teams.
Centennial is way to small for the CFL and I really can't see any one wanting to build a stadium. At this point I would say this is nothing more than posturing by the league and the team. The Ti-Cats have been in Hamilton to long. I just can't see them packing up and leaving town.

You're right KayDubya! And combine that with the fact that Im pretty sure Centennial Stadium would require new stands as they are currently structurally unsafe.

Looking at the numbers, the smallest stadium in the CFL currently is Winnipeg's stadium which holds 29,533, and it's being replaced by a new stadium in 2012. By comparison, our biggest field here, University Stadium, holds 6000. Waterloo Region would HAVE to get a new stadium.

I think you're dead on though about the TiCats having too much history there. They're truly a CFL institution. I cant see them going anywhere.

[jay]

Especially to KW. We would need a new stadium, if any money is being spent on sports it will be towards a new Aud.

I don't see this happening at all. It's all political like KayDubya said.

[mpd618]

If they leave Hamilton because they're that adamant about building on their solely car-oriented greenfield site... I don't want them here either.

[Spokes]

If they leave Hamilton because they're that adamant about building on their solely car-oriented greenfield site... I don't want them here either.

Ya they wouldn't get that here that's for sure. The stadium would have to be close enough to both Universities too so they could use them.

[Tuuluuwag]

As a sport enthusiast, I would love nothing more than a CFL team of our own in the city. That being said, it would never work here. I can't even convince people I know to go to a Argonauts game with me. The prices are relatively decent, but if people were going to spend that type of cash, they would opt for a larger team basin and head to NFL Buffalo or CFL Hamilton or Toronto.

[Greg Moore]

Add to it that if the Tiger Cats franchise fails in a new market, the CFL is in dire straits. The league knows that even with terrible team, people in Hamilton will still go.

[garthdanlor]

I just heard on the CBC that the Feds and Province won't provide funding for the stadium unless it is up the Mountain, so they are siding with the team. The report said that they were worried that the stadium would become a white elephant if located down by the harbour. Disappointing.

[Urbanomicon]

Bob Young (owner of the Tiger Cats) sent a letter to Hamilton's Mayor today:

http://www.ticats.ca/article/bob-young-s-letter



Dear Fred,

It saddens me to advise you that the Hamilton Tiger-Cats Football Club is withdrawing from any further discussions and negotiations pertaining to the siting of the Pan Am Stadium in Hamilton.

It is painfully apparent, despite the best efforts of our facilitator, Michael Fenn, the plethora of information from stadium experts, and our own financial submissions, that you remain fixated on the West Harbour Stadium and without a strong political champion in Hamilton, it is impossible to continue our efforts with respect to the East Mountain proposal.

The need to replace Ivor Wynne Stadium played an integral part in the Pan-Am bid process, and undoubtedly we would not be debating this great opportunity were it not for the history and presence of this great franchise. Legacy in the form of an anchor tenant and a business case were part of the criteria that was generally accepted when the Pan Games Stadium was proposed for Hamilton. Simply put, the facility would have to be “sustainable” with an anchor tenant to justify federal and provincial taxpayer’s money.

You know that the Tiger-Cats have invested more than $30 million into this team and community over the course of the past seven years. We were vitally interested in being part of a stadium solution to replace Ivor Wynne.

Our facilitator, Mr. Fenn, understood these requirements when he advanced the compromise site on the East Mountain. This site was not our first choice. The most sensible location for a new stadium is on a small part of Confederation Park. The highway visibility would have brought the Tiger-Cats to a breakeven situation. The real development potential within the precinct would have brought jobs and real economic value to the City.

For reasons unknown to us, and the general public, this site was never an option.

Inherent in our proposal was the opportunity to work with senior levels of government to build something at the West Harbour that would be consistent with the planning principles contained in your planning document, Setting Sail.

In my view, this would have been a “win-win” situation. We believe that option was made available but has now been squandered.

As the most recent owner of the Tiger-Cats, I have always believed that my primary responsibility to the organization, the fans and to the memory of my family, who I have honoured with this ownership, was to ensure that the team would remain sustainable moving forward. By that, I mean, ECONOMICALLY sustainable.
The West Harbour option which you personally have driven gives the Tiger-Cats no hope of running a sustainable business. Using “best practice” criteria, and confirmed by leading experts around North America, this proposed stadium would rank dead last in North America in terms of usability for its tenants. It imposes a logistical nightmare for fans, particularly the “regional fans” that Mr. Fenn describes as vital to our survival.

As such, I cannot be part of a process that destines us to financial failure before the first shovel goes in the ground.

As owner of the Tiger-Cats, I cannot and will not be party to such an ill-advised concept.

I regret that over the course of the past year, you have not been sensitive to our concerns as your tenant. My major regret is the harsh reality that after next year, there will be no home for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the City where we shared so much success and positive experiences together. We note that even in the city’s own report, that without a tenant you are well beyond $60 million dollars short of building a 25,000 seat facility.

We will play out our days at Ivor Wynne.

I know this letter will be a disappointment to our thousands of fans, particularly those who share our dream as it pertains to a new, sustainable, legacy stadium. We thank them for their continued support and look forward to seeing them at Ivor Wynne Stadium for another great Labour Day Classic against the Argonauts on September 6th.


Sincerely,

Mr. Robert (Bob) Young

So it looks like they are definitely gone from Hamilton after this season. I heard on the radio that Quebec City is being considered as a possible new location for the team.

[mpd618]

So it looks like they are definitely gone from Hamilton after this season. I heard on the radio that Quebec City is being considered as a possible new location for the team.

This reads like a last-ditch attempt to threaten council into voting tomorrow for the East Mountain site. The political machinations of Bob Young, Ontario Realty Corporation, et al, make me sick.

[DHLawrence]

The stadium being considered in Quebec City is a 40-year-old university stadium and only seats 10,000. He'd be better off staying in Ivor Wynne.

It's all grandstanding. According to a post on SSP, Bob Young has stated that he won't accept council's decision if they vote for the East Mountain. That's professionalism all over. And considering the team has lost money for decades, he can hardly use that as an excuse to move. If there was anywhere better for them to go, they would have gone there by now.

[UrbanWaterloo]

It's hard to find cities more messed up than Hamilton (ok, Brantford does come to mind given their demolitions). Every project seems to have lengthy delays or is cancelled.

When I bumped this thread, it's not because I actually see us getting a football team at the moment. I view us getting a team as more of a 2020's thing as we have a lot of big projects already this decade (a likely new/expanded arena, LRT, etc..). That said if a team is relocating or if the CFL starts an expansion drive (because 8 teams in a league is pathetic), it might happen sooner rather than later.

Given our strong growth rate, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where we aren't one of the top five markets the CFL is looking at. Could Mr. Balsille be persuaded to own a football team instead? :RpS_tongue:

[garthdanlor]

When I bumped this thread, it's not because I actually see us getting a football team at the moment. I view us getting a team as more of a 2020's thing as we have a lot of big projects already this decade (a likely new/expanded arena, LRT, etc..). That said if a team is relocating or if the CFL starts an expansion drive (because 8 teams in a league is pathetic), it might happen sooner rather than later.

Given our strong growth rate, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where we aren't one of the top five markets the CFL is looking at. Could Mr. Balsille be persuaded to own a football team instead? :RpS_tongue:
We may soon have the population to be on the CFL short list for an expansion team, but is there actually a market in the Region for such a team? I can honestly say that I don't know anyone that considers themselves a CFL fan (i.e. watches and/or attends games). This may not be everyones experience, but I'm not sure that the CFL has a widespread appeal beyond its traditional markets. Sure, there would be initial excitement for the team but could we regularly fill a 25000 seat stadium (CFL minimum) over the long haul, and could the city/region justify spending $100+ million on such a stadium with no guarantees that the team doesn't go bust within a few years?

[KevinL]

We may soon have the population to be on the CFL short list for an expansion team, but is there actually a market in the Region for such a team? I can honestly say that I don't know anyone that considers themselves a CFL fan (i.e. watches and/or attends games). This may not be everyones experience, but I'm not sure that the CFL has a widespread appeal beyond its traditional markets. Sure, there would be initial excitement for the team but could we regularly fill a 25000 seat stadium (CFL minimum) over the long haul, and could the city/region justify spending $100+ million on such a stadium with no guarantees that the team doesn't go bust within a few years?

My thoughts exactly. An NHL team makes perfect sense to me; if any professional sport gets widespread following in this region, it's ice hockey. I see the occasional gridiron football supporter, yes, but they seem fine supporting the Argos, Ticats or Buffalo Bills.

[Spokes]

Ya that is a definite concern for me too. A lot of my friends that are football fans are NFL fans. A lot of people will say, football is football, but not true. There's a big difference, I know a lot of people who can't stand CFL rules football. The only reason I watch it is for coaching ideas, if it weren't for that, it'd be NFL only.

Does that mean a franchise wouldnt be successful here? Right now, I'd say yes. In 10-20 years, I could see it for sure.

[KayDubya]

You'd have to think, IF, the Ti-Cats moved out of the province a team in Waterloo Region might move up the list much quicker for the CFL.
The CFL is a league that (in Ontario) is followed in cities with teams and where there is no there are very few CFL fans. I think if a team was here you'd get more support than many expect. It would take time and hard work to make it a true success but it could be done. However, I agree it's more than likely 10 - 15 years away before we see a team here.

[garthdanlor]

Does that mean a franchise wouldnt be successful here? Right now, I'd say yes. In 10-20 years, I could see it for sure.

The problem for the CFL in Southern Ontario is that if (and likely when) Toronto gets its NFL franchise, CFL interest would evaporate in Toronto and would also likely take a hit in other nearby CFL cities. This would make the difficult task of establishing a CFL team in a market like Waterloo Region even more difficult.

[UrbanWaterloo]

I agree at this point in time a developed football market doesn't exist here. That said, where else does one exist in Canada? Ottawa & Quebec City sure, but after those two places we're certainly right up there just due to population (even given how weak we currently are percentage-wise). If the CFL wants to expand and become a viable league of 15 (3 divisions of 5 teams) or 16 (4 division of 4 teams) franchises, it's going to have to look at Waterloo Region. I also agree that from our point of view there are more important developments to either spend our money on (LRT/Arena) or dream about (NHL).

To summarize, I believe Waterloo Region is, or should be, one of the Top 5 potential markets for the CFL. However, the CFL is not (nor should be) one of the Top 5 priorities for Waterloo Region at this time.

That said, by the time the mid-2020s role around we'll be approaching 700,000 people. We'll also have completed our current crop of mega-projects, had a bit of a breather and be ready to take on another large-scale project if we so desire. I'd like to suggest we make a bid for a large-scale sporting event. Specifically I'm thinking of the 2026 Commonwealth Games (www.thecgf.com). The last of these held in Canada were in Victoria during 1994, so it's certainly time they returned to this country. In order to win those games we'll need to submit a nomination in 2018, which means this should really be a 2014 Municipal Election issue: Do we start to build local support for a bid? On a related note, I'd also like to bid on the 2025 Canada Games and use them to test out the venues.

I wouldn't support council spending $100-million+ solely on a stadium at this time. I would support council spending that much (and more) on the Commonwealth Games in 2026 though, as it would provide a lasting legacy for the city. The stadium from those games would be used by a future football team.

So we really are a few years ahead of ourselves I think (although there's nothing wrong with discussing long-term possibilities), unless of course the CFL becomes desperate quickly which may speed things up.

[Spokes]

Football market in Ottawa? Depends who you ask hah. That's the big question right there. Two teams have already folded there, in part due to ownership, but some would say due in part to support. But I know what you mean.

You're right though, that WR, would/should be next on the list for Eastern expansion. Part of the problem, is even if we wanted to host an exhibition game, where would we do it? University stadium? It only holds 6k, which isn't enough to get a good idea of support. Combine that with the fact that it being a one time thing means you'll get more support than you ordinarily would, so its tough to judge.

You're right though about the mid 2020's...that's when things will make the most sense. Especially if LRT happens, that way it'd guarantee a new stadium gets built. And it would make more sense for spending money on a stadium.

As for the commonwealth games, I'd love to see it happen, but I think the Canada Games are a better first step. Although if there's support, why not try?

[garthdanlor]

I wouldn't support council spending $100-million+ solely on a stadium at this time. I would support council spending that much (and more) on the Commonwealth Games in 2026 though, as it would provide a lasting legacy for the city. The stadium from those games would be used by a future football team.

Wow, that's an interesting idea. The 2002 Commonwealth Games was an important step in the regeneration of Manchester and would certainly help to spur on development here too. It could be used as an incentive to speed up the LRT connection with Cambridge and, maybe, we would finally get a direct rail link with YYZ. Not to mention the new venues, hotels and restaurants.

Do you envision this as a solo venture for Waterloo Region, or a joint bid with London, Hamilton, or Guelph? Bring on the stadium location controversy...

[DHLawrence]

Why not 2030, the anniversary year? Only fitting that the games return home :) (Albeit a few kilometres away from where the first Games were held, in Hamilton).

[DHLawrence]

I've been reading the discussions on the Hamilton SSP group; I find it amusing that there are more people predicting that Hamilton will lose a professional sports team (the Ti-Cats) than gain one (NHL). No inferiority complex there...

[jamesbow]

One option for a Waterloo Regional CFL team might be to, rather than compete with London, work with it. Why not split the home games between facilities in Waterloo Region and London, potentially expanding the fan base? We could also add a game or two in Windsor, if they're game.

I had a similar idea when Lazaridis was thinking about buying the Nashville Predators and people here were thinking that the team might look good in Waterloo Region (rather than Hamilton's Copps Coliseum, which would make more sense): spread out the home games among various venues that would guarantee concentrated local interest and thus be more likely to sell out the facility.

And as for the name: same here as for my proposed NHL team: the Wanderers of Ontario.

[KevinL]

One option for a Waterloo Regional CFL team might be to, rather than compete with London, work with it. Why not split the home games between facilities in Waterloo Region and London, potentially expanding the fan base? We could also add a game or two in Windsor, if they're game.

Would said facilities be successful, though,if they only host half (or less) of a season's games in a given year? Seems like a watering-down of resources to me.

[garthdanlor]

Would said facilities be successful, though,if they only host half (or less) of a season's games in a given year? Seems like a watering-down of resources to me.
Yeah, we would end up with two expensive and money losing stadia instead of one.

[WatDot]

We may soon have the population to be on the CFL short list for an expansion team, but is there actually a market in the Region for such a team? I can honestly say that I don't know anyone that considers themselves a CFL fan (i.e. watches and/or attends games). This may not be everyones experience, but I'm not sure that the CFL has a widespread appeal beyond its traditional markets. Sure, there would be initial excitement for the team but could we regularly fill a 25000 seat stadium (CFL minimum) over the long haul, and could the city/region justify spending $100+ million on such a stadium with no guarantees that the team doesn't go bust within a few years?

My two cents... I agree.
Waterloo is too close to competition. Buffalo is easily done and is by many to watch a NFL game live. Hamilton and Toronto are close enough if someone really wants to watch the CFL. Put a team in Halifax or St. John's. Not too sound bad, but they have nothing out East. They are very dedicated people (pride) and have limited things to cheer for. Look at the turnout for "The Juno Awards" in St. John's compared to Toronto. A CFL team would do well in one of those two cities IMO.

[Shawn]

One option for a Waterloo Regional CFL team might be to, rather than compete with London, work with it. Why not split the home games between facilities in Waterloo Region and London, potentially expanding the fan base? We could also add a game or two in Windsor, if they're game.

That's actually a very intriguing idea! I've never thought or heard of that suggestion before.

I've only ever seen 1 CFL game in my life and honestly, the only reason I went was because it was sort of a combo birthday party/outting for a buddy and that's what he wanted to do. Otherwise you couldn't have pryed me out of my chair to schlep down to Toronto for a CFL game.

The more I think about it, the more I like this idea, not only for CFL but a more likely success, as you say, an NHL team shared! Think of it, The SWO Predators

[jamesbow]

Would said facilities be successful, though,if they only host half (or less) of a season's games in a given year? Seems like a watering-down of resources to me.

That's only if we actually are required to build a full sized stadium, which then sits empty most weekends of the year. If we take established facilities, and expand them with temporary seating, and fill these up during the fewer times the team plays a home game there, we could save money on building a full stadium, and get a highly charged sell-out crowd. It goes like this: could Waterloo bring 20,000 people to eight CFL games a year? No? How about four CFL games a year? Same question goes to London or Windsor.

If we can expand current facilities temporarily so that we can spread those sell-out crowds over eight games but in two or three different cities, we may have a profitable venture.

[UrbanWaterloo]

Playing in the Big Leagues: Briefing 11—Fantasy Football! How Many Teams Could There Be in the Canadian Football League?
November 2011 | Glen Hodgson and Mario Lefebvre | Conference Board of Canada | Link (http://www.conferenceboard.ca/reports/briefings/bigLeagues/briefing-11.aspx)

Fans of the Canadian Football League are passionate—about their teams and about their game. But could that passion be enough to support more CFL franchises?

Another Canadian Football League season is almost done. This Sunday in Vancouver, the BC Lions will play the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the 99th Grey Cup game.

Amateur and professional competition for the Grey Cup dates back to 1909, but the trophy has been the sole property of the CFL since the league was officially founded in 1958. The league—which represents the highest level of football played in Canada—is also the professional sports league with the largest number of franchises in Canada at eight. That’s one more Canadian team than in the National Hockey League.

Still, with no teams outside Canada, the CFL is a small league in terms of franchise numbers. That creates a problem—the teams play each other too many times, thereby diminishing the entertainment value. The CFL has two divisions—East and West—with four teams in each. The league’s regular season consists of 18 games spread over 19 weeks of play, and each team plays its divisional rivals three or four times and plays teams from the other division twice.

We like football, and our work so far in this Playing in the Big Leagues series of briefings has made us wonder whether market conditions in Canada could support an expanded CFL. In Defining the Market Conditions for Success (http://www.conferenceboard.ca/reports/briefings/bigLeagues/briefing-2.aspx) (the second briefing in the series), we established that a professional sports franchise can be successful over the long run in a specific market if four market conditions are met. They are:

a large (enough) and growing population;
a relatively wealthy market;
a sound corporate presence; and
a level playing field.

Other factors—such as league operating conditions and franchise-specific factors (e.g., ownership)—are also important to financial success. But for the purpose of this briefing, we focus on the market conditions needed for a CFL franchise to be successful, and how many more CFL teams could the country sustain.

CFL Market Conditions

The CFL is not one of the four major North American pro sports leagues, nor does it claim to be. The CFL is not trying to compete with the National Football League. Instead, it is a second-tier league (similar to the American Hockey League, which largely serves as a development league for the National Hockey League). Therefore, the market requirements for a successful franchise in the CFL are not the same as those of a franchise in a top-tier league. This is particularly true when it comes to two of the market pillars mentioned above—corporate presence and a level playing field. Of course, the stronger the corporate presence in a market, the better are a CFL team’s chances for success. A strong corporate presence increases a team’s revenues from corporate boxes and boosts sponsorship and paid advertisement. However, a CFL team’s revenue requirements are not the same as those of an NHL franchise, principally because the player salary cap in the CFL is so much lower. This year, the CFL cap was set at $4.3 million. In contrast, the NHL cap this season is $64 million—about 15 times more. Even if one compares the salary cap of each league per home game, the ratio would favour the CFL. At less than $500,000 per game ($4.3 million divided by nine home games), the CFL cap on a per game basis is less than a third of the NHL’s, which stands at over $1.5 million per game ($64 million divided by 41 home games).

Similarly, since the CFL has franchises only in Canada, the level playing field criterion is much less in play. With all teams located in Canada,1 franchises in the CFL do not have to contend with issues related to the exchange rate. While many U.S.-born players (nearly 50 per cent of CFL players) were certainly unhappy when the Canadian dollar was at 62 cents U.S. in 2002 and were less likely to sign with a CFL team, the weakness or strength of the dollar does not favour any one franchise over another (unlike in the NHL, where the weak Canadian dollar made it difficult for Canadian-based teams to compete financially with U.S.-based franchises).

The two market pillars that matter the most to the CFL are population and the relative wealth of the market. Table 1 shows how the eight current CFL franchises stack up with respect to these two criteria.

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/Libraries/reports_PUBLIC/SportsBrief-11_table.sflb

The smallest market is that of the Saskatchewan Roughriders, with Regina at 215,000 people. The Roughriders are a highly successful franchise, so it could be argued that the minimum market size required to support a CFL team is as low as 215,000.
But we don’t believe that a market of 215,000 is sufficient to support a CFL franchise. The Saskatchewan Roughriders, while located in Regina, are properly named—the team benefits from the support of the entire province, and even that of Saskatchewan natives living outside the province. So we don’t think that there could soon be a game between, for example, Regina and Saskatoon—adding a second franchise in Saskatchewan would divide a unique market and place one or both franchises at risk.

This prompts the question: If 215,000 is too low, what is the minimum population required to sustain a CFL franchise? The second-smallest CFL market is Hamilton, with a population of 740,000. If this is the minimum population required, only Ottawa–Gatineau and Québec City can be viewed as potential expansion markets. However, at least four other markets—Kitchener, London, Halifax, and Moncton—should be considered. That means six markets are potential candidates for expansion.

Ottawa–Gatineau

At over 1.2 million people, the Ottawa–Gatineau CMA should never have lost its CFL franchise.2 The national capital is slated to get a team again. After repeated delays and setbacks in the approval process, the return of the CFL to Ottawa is now targeted for the 2014 season, once Lansdowne Park has been renovated. Once again, the CFL will be a nine-team league.

Québec City

With a population of over 750,000, Québec City would appear to be next in line for a CFL franchise. It is already home to one of the most successful teams in Canadian Interuniversity Sport (CIS) football, the Laval University Rouge et Or. The Québec City economy has been one of the best performing municipal economies east of Saskatchewan over the past decade, pushing per capita disposable income of the CMA up to 10th spot among Canada’s 27 largest CMAs in 2010. Moreover, Québec City already has a football stadium. PEPS (Pavillon de l'éducation physique et des sports) stadium officially seats a little over 12,500, but on many occasions nearly 20,000 fans have packed themselves in for an important Rouge et Or match. While the stadium would require a bit of work to meet the needs of a CFL team on a permanent basis, it provides a sound starting point.

Although Québec City would appear to be second in line for a franchise, it should not be viewed as a priority market for now.

However, all of the CMA’s current efforts to attract a professional sports franchise are being concentrated on bringing the NHL back to the city. For now, Québec City should not be viewed as a priority CFL market. But if the city is successful in its bid to bring NHL hockey back to Québec City, and if it shows that it can support the team, that could put a different perspective on the question of whether a CFL team could flourish there as well. One key issue is whether the Québec City market would be overstretched with both an NHL and a CFL team. But there is only a partial overlap in the CFL and NHL seasons; and given the incredible success of the Rouge et Or, Québec City must be considered as a potential CFL market over the long term.

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo and London

These two Ontario markets are grouped together as they are similar in size, with the population in each CMA reaching nearly 500,000 in 2010. Both are home to CIS football teams, and both have long and successful football traditions. With respect to per capita disposable income, Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo (KCW) ranks well, with a level of $29,200 in 2010. That is higher than Hamilton or Montréal. Per capita disposable income in London stood at $27,408 in 2010, which would make it the lowest of all markets currently in the CFL and 21st among Canada’s 27 largest CMAs.

In terms of possible playing facilities, London possesses an advantage. TD Waterhouse Stadium, home of the Western Ontario Mustangs, can seat 8,000 people. While this capacity is clearly not sufficient for a CFL franchise, the Montreal Alouettes took about 10 years to renovate and reshape the aging but revered Percival Molson Stadium into a CFL-worthy facility with seating capacity of 25,000. A major investment would be required to expand London’s facilities, but TD Waterhouse Stadium provides a foundation to build upon.

The same does not hold true for KCW. While there are three football stadiums in the CMA (two of which are used by CIS football teams), all three are small and would require large investment to expand or rebuild to reach the 25,000 or more in seating capacity required for a CFL franchise. Kitchener’s Centennial Stadium seats just 3,200 spectators (but, on the plus side, does have easy highway access from Waterloo, Guelph, and Cambridge). University Stadium in Waterloo seats 6,000 and is home to the Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks. Warrior Field—home of the University of Waterloo Warriors—is new but has a capacity of just 5,400, including seating for 1,400 in the grandstand.

Given the much larger investment that would be required to build a CFL-suitable stadium in the KCW area, and given the relatively close distance to Hamilton and Toronto with their CFL teams, the London CMA has the edge when it comes to its potential as a new market for the CFL. But both London and KCW have their limitations and would be long shots to win or maintain franchises.

One other factor regarding the establishment of an additional CFL franchise in Southern Ontario is potential market saturation. There are already two CFL teams in Southern Ontario (Hamilton and Toronto), and residents of the region can also drive to Buffalo to watch the Bills of the National Football League (or they can catch the Bills in Toronto, where the team plays one regular-season game each year). And it is not certain that the Southern Ontario market could support any more CFL teams.

Halifax and Moncton

Two other potential CFL markets are located in Canada’s Atlantic provinces. Atlantic Canada does not currently have a top-tier professional sports franchise, despite the obvious appetite for sports in the area. But to support a franchise, a region needs more than just an appetite for pro sports. With a population of slightly more than 400,000 people, Halifax would be a relatively small urban market for the CFL. Still, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have shown that a team with provincial and regional reach can be successful, and a Halifax-based franchise could become a team for the entire Maritimes. The biggest challenge for Halifax is the lack of a CFL-quality facility. Huskies Stadium at St. Mary’s University can seat up to 11,000 fans, as it did in 2005 when the stadium hosted an exhibition game between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Toronto Argonauts and temporary stands were constructed for the event. (The “Touchdown Atlantic” game was aimed at gauging the region’s public support for a CFL franchise.) However, on a permanent basis, the stadium seats only 4,000 people. Given the physical space constraints, a major expansion of Huskies Stadium would be very difficult. Therefore, a significant investment would be required to create a CFL-ready stadium in the Halifax area.

Moncton’s central location in Atlantic Canada plus the higher seating capacity of its stadium give Moncton the edge over Halifax.

Moncton must also be considered as a potential new CFL market in Atlantic Canada. This New Brunswick CMA is home to 126,000 residents, making it even smaller than Regina. However, the city has gained the nickname of “Hub City” because of its central location in the region and because Moncton has historically been the railway and land transportation hub for the Atlantic provinces. With its central location, a team based in Moncton could benefit from the support of the entire province of New Brunswick (with a population of more than 750,000) and much of the rest of Atlantic Canada.

The city has a playing facility that is almost CFL-ready—Moncton Stadium, located on the campus of l’Université de Moncton. Originally built to host the 2010 world junior track and field championships, the stadium has 10,000 permanent seats, and is expandable to a 20,725 capacity via temporary seating. The stadium hosted the first CFL regular season game in the Maritimes (again called “Touchdown Atlantic”) in September 2010. A second regular season game was played there in September 2011.

While Moncton Stadium would require some work to bring it permanently up to CFL standards, it gives Moncton an edge over Halifax in obtaining a CFL franchise for Atlantic Canada. Still, neither the Moncton nor the Halifax market alone is large enough to ensure long-term viability of a CFL team. If a franchise does come to the Maritimes, its owners will have to work hard to market the team as a regional franchise—one that can attract fans from the neighbouring provinces as well, and do so on an ongoing basis.

Conclusion

Our market analysis indicates that there is room for more than eight teams in the Canadian Football League. Ottawa is already expected to join in 2014, and cities such as London and Moncton could be contenders. If positioned and marketed as regional teams, both locations have the required market size, as well as stadiums that could be expanded to become permanent CFL facilities.

Adding Ottawa, London, and Moncton would lift the number of teams in the CFL from 8 to 11. As for Québec City, the focus for now is solely on bringing the NHL’s Nordiques back. But the CFL could be the next step for this community over the longer term. That would increase the total number of teams to 12. Looking even further into the future (and depending on the success of Moncton and London), Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo and Halifax could join the league. But this is where it would stop (at least for the next 10 to 20 years). Fourteen teams has to be viewed as the upper limit for the CFL.

Expansion will not happen overnight. Moreover, there is the issue of ownership. Even in a good market, strong ownership is key to a franchise. Finding dedicated owners for each additional CFL franchise will be key to the long-term success of any new franchise.

Still, there is considerable room for growth in the CFL—from the current 8 to an upper limit of 14 teams. A CFL of 10 or 12 teams would be much more entertaining for fans, and would create new regional rivalries that don’t exist today.
An expanded CFL—one that grew step by step—could have a bright future.

[markster]

The answer to the question in the thread title appears to be "No."

I like how the article conveniently forgets to mention that a team in Ottawa has failed twice:

At over 1.2 million people, the Ottawa–Gatineau CMA should never have lost its CFL franchise.2 The national capital is slated to get a team again. After repeated delays and setbacks in the approval process, the return of the CFL to Ottawa is now targeted for the 2014 season, once Lansdowne Park has been renovated. Once again, the CFL will be a nine-team league.
"Should never have lost its CFL franchise" is perhaps overly optimistic.